Paban Pandey | TalkMarkets | Page 56
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Contributor's Links: Hedgopia
Paban Raj Pandey left a senior analyst position at a small hedge fund in January 2014, and started blogging in April of that year. With 20 years’ industry experience, he primarily focuses on US equities, macro, technical analysis, and derivatives (particularly options). Paban shares his ...more

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Gold Gets No Love, But Trying To Stabilize – Dec ’15 Trend Line Defended
It is increasingly getting difficult to discern if US markets are in risk-on or risk-off mode. There is a bid under the long end of the sovereign bond market.
US Dollar Index At Fib Resistance – Path Of Least Resistance Down, At Least N/T
The US dollar index is at an interesting juncture. The peak in January coincided with a 61.8-percent retracement of the 41.2–percent decline between July 2001 and April 2008.
Improvement In S&P 500 Earnings-Related Metrics In 1Q18 – One-Off Or Trend?
In 1Q18, S&P 500 companies reported $36.54 in operating earnings, up 26.8 percent year-over-year and eight percent quarter-over-quarter.
SPY – Medium-Term Risks Building, But Can Rally Near Term
US core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) increased 1.96 percent year-over-year in May – essentially two percent.
The Future Via Futures And CoT For The Coming Week
Weekly momentum indicators have room to continue lower.
US Corporations Splurge On Dividends/Buybacks, Cash Cushion Likely Shrinks Ahead
US companies are sitting on tons of cash, and are also spending tons in dividends and buybacks. As they continue to pay back shareholders, debt load – rising – moves front and center.
Long And Short Of Short Interest - Wednesday, June 27
A brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the June 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors.
Early Signs Of Large-Cap Fatigue Spreading To Small-Caps, Tech
Signs of fatigue are showing up in US equities. It began with large-caps, and now there are early signs it is spreading to small-caps as well as tech.
What The Future Holds, According To CoT This Week
Volatility remains suppressed – pretty much across the investing landscape. In US equities, both small-caps and tech – considered risk-on – are attracting bids. Gold continues to languish.
Trump’s China Tariffs Versus China’s Trump Card
China’s holdings of Treasury securities fell $5.8 billion month-over-month in April to $1.18 trillion. It remains the largest holder of these securities.
ITB Acts Tentative – Any Message For Builder Sentiment/Home Sales/Starts?
ITB (iShares Dow Jones US home construction ETF) continues to search for direction. As did lots of other ETFs/indices/individual stocks, it fell drastically late January-early February.
Signs Of Fatigue Showing Up On S&P 500
Large and small-cap divergence continues. Versus the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 is beginning to show signs of fatigue.
Looking At Futures With CoT
Central banks are pulling back. The pace is glacial, but the QE juice is drying up. In due course, this is bound to reverberate through assets, not the least of which are equities.
Fed Tilts Slightly Hawkish, 10-Year T-Yields/Yield Curve Yawn
The long end of the Treasury yield curve is doing it again. It refuses to go along with the Fed’s tightening campaign, particularly so Wednesday as policymakers were a slightly more hawkish than previously.
Long And Short Of Short-Interest
Here is a brief review of the period-over-period change in short-interest in the May 16-31 period in nine S&P 500 sectors.
SPY Breaks Out But May Need To Digest Recent Gains – Options Reflect Elevated Optimism
The S&P 500 large cap index finally breaks out of a box. Further building on it near term may prove difficult as the options market indicates investor sentiment is sanguine right now.
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