Norman Mogil | TalkMarkets | Page 25
Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more

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Corporate Income Tax Cuts And Growth: The Canadian Experience
One of the central planks of the Trump platform has been the lowering of corporate taxes as a spur to greater growth.
A Second Opinion On The Bond Market: Time To Buy Canadian Bonds
As the U.S. bond market surged in yields following the presidential election, Canadian bonds followed in lock step across the yield curve.
The Future Is Already Here, Or So It Seems To The Financial Markets
The equity markets are leading the way to higher valuations; the credit markets are taking on more risk; and the commodity markets are enjoying a rally almost across the board.
The Vulnerabilities In The Canadian Economy Only Got Worse With Trump
In its latest assessment of the Canadian economy in October, 2016, the Bank of Canada identified several areas in which the Canadian economy continues to be vulnerable.
Hope Springs Eternal When It Comes To Forecasting Inflation
The U.S. presidential election opened up the flood gates of hope for renewed growth and inflation. Suddenly, markets shifted gears dramatically and bets were placed that 2017 will see the return of higher growth and inflation.
U.S. Manufacturing Jobs And Trade Under The Microscope
As Americans prepare for a new administration, we can expect the issue of job losses from international trade to be front and centre. The preservation of manufacturing jobs, in particular, has become a political touchstone.
The Canadian Dollar: A "Made In Canada" Rate Of Exchange
It is very easy to just assume that the Canadian dollar moves in direct response to U.S. monetary policy. The entire basket of currencies that comprise the USD index has moved up sharply following the Fed’s rate hike earlier this month.
A Central Bank’s Dilemma: Should Monetary Policy Be Used To Curb A Housing Boom?
The cost of curbing house prices with conventional monetary policy tools is simply too high, suggesting that central banks should not lean against housing booms.
Immigration, Housing And The Canadian Economy
What is in store for Canadian housing demand ? The Canadian government recently announced that it intends to admit 400,000 immigrants in 2017, an increase of some 80,000 over the level achieved in 2015.
Getting Some Perspective On The Productivity Issue
As the new U.S. administration takes shape, we can expect a lot of discussion on how to improve productivity as the driving force behind greater economic growth.
Not Every Bond Investor Is Afraid Of Inflation
Now that the Federal Reserve has taken a more aggressive posture regarding the need to raise the Fed funds rate, investors are placing speculative bets on rising bond yields.
The Delusion Of A Four Percent Growth Rate
The incoming Trump administration touts its ability to deliver 4 per cent growth, a return to the halcyon days of the 1980s and 90s.
The Bank Of Canada Has Lost Its Mojo
The latest announcement by the Bank of Canada to maintain the bank rate at 0.5 per cent should come as no surprise. The decision adds more credence that Canada’s bank rate is on hold indefinitely, and that the Bank of Canada is stuck in neutral.
The Perils Of Forecasting Interest Rates
With the year coming to a close, investors will be inundated with forecasts for 2017, especially for interest rates. The bond market holds the most attraction, as investors re-assess portfolios to reflect the rapid increase in rates since Nov. 8th.
When It Comes To NAFTA And Canada, Trump Has It All Wrong
What can we expect to realistically happen should the Trump administration open up the NAFTA agreement for re-negotiations?
Canada Has A Large Hole In Its Economy
In a very forthright speech this week the Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, make it clear that the Canadian economy needs to fill a large gap created by the dramatic decline in the energy industry.
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