Norman Mogil | TalkMarkets | Page 23
Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more

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Does The Fed Have To Shrink Its Balance Sheet?
A large balance sheet gives the Fed lots of leeway in setting short-term interest rates; the rate paid on bank reserves deposited with the Fed creates a rate ceiling and the rate charged on reverse repos maintains a floor.
The Canadian Bond Market Gives A Totally Different Reading Of The Economy
Canada has become one of the fastest growing economies in the developed world.
How Quickly Inflation Sentiment Changes
Investors can be a fickle bunch when it comes to their perception of the future path of inflation. A lot has happened since mid-March to change investor sentiment.
Why US Growth Cannot Exceed 3%: Look No Further Than Demography
Those who anticipate an acceleration in growth chose to ignore the overwhelming demographic forces that can slow an economy for many years, even decades.
What Does Shrinking The Fed’s Balance Sheet Mean For The Market?
The Fed’s balance sheet has swollen from $869 billion in 2007 to $4.45 trillion as of today. Thus the effort to shrink the balance sheet will take a lot of careful doing and time.
Canada’s Mercuric Economy
Just like the chemical mercury, the Canadian economy expands or contracts depending on the external temperature. We started the new year off on a very strong footing with January’s GDP growth of 0.6 per cent.
Canadian Economy Not Out Of The Woods Yet
A spade of good economic news came Canada`s way this past quarter, yet one should be careful in drawing conclusions that the economy is on a solid growth path.
The Slowdown In U.S. Credit Supply Is A Harbinger Of Further Weakness
One of the hallmarks of this current quarter’s performance is the slowdown in credit expansion. U.S. domestic bank loan growth is falling in most categories over the past six months.
What Lies Behind The Stealth Rally In Bonds
While investors debate on whether the Trump rally in equities will continue, participants in the bond market have already made their decision.
The Trump Economic Narrative Is Just A Head Fake
Nowhere was the Trump narrative of pro-growth and higher inflation embraced without reservation than in the financial markets. His economic policies had inflation written all over them.
Canadian Federal Budget Is In A Holding Pattern
Canadian household debt levels hold back domestic spending. Combined with accelerating housing costs, these represent considerable risks to the economy.
How Long Can The Federal Reserve Go It Alone?
The Federal Reserve is marching to its own drum and the rest of the world is not in step.
American Labor Share Continues To Decline
The February jobs report gives us another snapshot of how the income for American worker is undergoing change. Continuing a recent trend, average hourly earnings rose a modest 0.2 per cent and weekly hours worked remained unchanged for last month.
The War Over Trade Policy In The White House
The war over trade policy has the economic nationalists squaring off against the pro-trade factions from Wall Street.
The Struggle Within The Bond Market
With the equity markets sitting at record highs and in a state of euphoria, bond investors are of two minds.
Another Look At The “Reflation“ Trade
While equity markets are buoyed by the prospects of de-regulation and tax cuts, there is so little evidence of specific policies and spending plans to justify this euphoria.
353 to 368 of 437 Posts
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