Norman Mogil | TalkMarkets | Page 26
Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more

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The Fallacy Of “America First” Trade Policy
Trump obsesses on country-specific trade deficits. The United States has a multilateral trade problem involving over 100 countries. China accounts for about 40 per cent and NAFTA partners only for another 10 per cent of the total deficit.
The Emerging Markets Are About To Feel The Pain Of A Soaring Dollar
Since 2008 US dollar credit has grown more rapidly outside than inside the U.S.
Equity Investors Be Careful What You Wish For
Since the U.S. election two weeks ago, investors, worldwide, have placed enormous bets on a major shift in U.S. economic policy.
Can A Stimulus Program Really Boost The U.S. Economy?
Government stimulus spending, whether on infrastructure or a reduction in taxes, is predicated on the Keynesian assumption that underutilized resources can be put to work to boost aggregate demand.
Bondholders' Greatest Fear: Will Trump’s Fiscal Deficits Lead To Inflation?
Interest rates volatility has emerged with a vengeance as the bond market adjusts to the news of the election of Trump.
A Perspective On Household Debt In The US And Canada
Ever since the 2008 debt crisis, economists have debated the impact of rising household debt on economic growth. The issue appears to be more acute in Canada where the debt ratio has surpassed that of the U.S. and continues to climb.
Low Oil Prices Continue To Plague The Canadian Economy
The decline in oil prices continues to take its toll on the Canadian economy. In its most recent Economic Statement, the Federal government presented estimates of just how damaging the loss of oil revenues has been since 2014.
Is The Bond Market`s Inflation Scare Warranted?
Inflation and inflationary expectations, above all else, account for changes in the yield curve. Is inflation stirring and is the bond sell-off justified?
The Bank Of Canada’s Elusive Goal: Closing The Output Gap
The Canadian economy has been operating at much less than full capacity- in terms of labour and capital utilization - for all of the period since the 2008 financial crash.
Jockeying For Position: Interest Rates And The Currency Markets
Recent speeches among the members of the FOMC give strong indications that the Fed is about to raise its policy rate as part of its longer term strategy of returning rates to more “ normal” levels.
It Is Growth, Not Inflation, That Keeps The Fed At Bay
A recent speech by the vice–chairman of the Federal Reserve, Stanley Fischer, revealed what really concerns the FOMC. In the words of Fischer it is "growth, growth, and growth".
Canada Continues To Struggle In Export Markets
The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in which it revealed that Canadian exporters continue to meet with resistence in world markets.
Who Really Sets Interest Rates
With so much attention focussed on the Fed‘s rate setting decisions, investors often ignore who actually sets the whole array of interest rates that affect investment decisions.
Canada Tries To Cool A Hot Housing Market
For nearly a decade, Canadians have watched as housing prices registered double digit increases year after year. This past year was no exception as house prices in Toronto increased by nearly 20 percent.
Taking The Long View: Buying 50 Yr Bonds
Short term investors are hanging on every word spoken by central bankers for clues as to when bank rates will rise.
Why The Canadian Economy Is Stuck In Neutral Gear: Look To The Trade Sector
Even prior to the collapse in oil prices in 2014, the Canadian economy started to stall and now is stuck in neutral.
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