Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 97

Menzie Chinn

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more
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A Fiscal Tale Of Two States: Minnesota Vs. Wisconsin
Tuesday, September 30, 2014 12:37 PM EDT
The two neighboring states of Wisconsin and Minnesota share a similar economic structure and size; and yet their fortunes have diverged over the past three years.
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The Rising Dollar And Macroeconomic And Policy Prospects
Friday, September 26, 2014 4:13 PM EDT
The United States dollar, after one of its most prolonged weak spells ever, has now re-emerged as the preferred currency for global investors.
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Interpreting The Yield Curve: Some Pictures
Tuesday, September 23, 2014 4:23 PM EDT
Yields on short-term U.S. Treasury debt maturing in two to five years hit the highest level since 2011, reflecting an investor scramble to place bets on an expected Federal Reserve rate increase as soon as next spring. …
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Economic Portents – Kansas
Tuesday, September 23, 2014 3:31 AM EDT
Here are some economic indicators for Kansas; they indicate rising GDP but stalling real personal income (through 2014Q2), stagnant employment growth, with manufacturing employment deviating from national trends.
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Wisconsin Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Declines In August
Thursday, September 18, 2014 4:35 PM EDT
DWD released August employment figures today. Attainment of Governor Walker’s 250,000 net new private sector jobs continues to be unlikely.
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Further Deterioration In Wisconsin Structural Budget Surplus
Thursday, September 18, 2014 3:32 AM EDT
Wisconsin Department of Health Services indicates additional $760 million Medicaid expenditures for FY15-17. [1] This implies a further worsening of the 2015-17 biennium structural budget balance from -$1.8 billion (discussed here) to something like -$2.56 billion.
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From October 2013: “The Obamacare Implosion Is Worse Than You Think”
Tuesday, September 16, 2014 3:54 PM EDT
That’s a title from an oped by former GW Bush speechwriter and current AEI scholar Marc Thiessen nearly a year ago. We can now evaluate whether in fact the implementation of individual insurance mandate component of the ACA did implode.
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Forecasted North Sea Oil Production
Sunday, September 14, 2014 8:27 PM EDT
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has just released its 2014 International Energy Outlook. How much can an independent Scotland rely upon?
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“Facts Are Stupid Things”
Friday, September 12, 2014 4:50 AM EDT
Regarding the implications of optimal currency area theory and Scottish independence, Reader Patrick Sullivan continues his reign of error, trying to argue that Canada did just fine, just like a bank crisis-free Scotland in a currency union would.
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The Evaporation Of The Wisconsin Budget Surplus
Wednesday, September 10, 2014 6:31 AM EDT
Three weeks ago, I documented the deterioration in Wisconsin budget prospects. Since then, the fiscal hemorrhaging has continued.
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Reading Macro Data: Growth Rates, Annual Rates, Data Breaks
Tuesday, September 9, 2014 1:10 PM EDT
Suppose one wants to report annual growth rates, but one has a choice between using annual data or quarterly data. One convention applied to quarterly data is to use 4q/4q, that is the growth rate from the previous year’s 4th quarter to the current year’s.
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The ECB Does QE/CE
Friday, September 5, 2014 11:56 AM EDT
Mario Draghi signaled at least 700 billion euros ($906 billion) of fresh aid for his moribund economy and left a fight with Germany over sovereign-bond purchases for another day.
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Low Long Term Rates To Stay?
Thursday, September 4, 2014 8:54 PM EDT
As the U.S. economy returns to healthier growth, many of us expected long-term interest rates to return to more normal historical levels. But the general trend has been down since the end of the Great Recession. The following graphs explain...
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Quantitative Implications Of Wisconsin Quarterly Census Of Employment And Wages
Monday, September 1, 2014 1:59 PM EDT
No succor from the QCEW series that the Walker Administration previously touted.
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Wisconsin Forecasted To Lag Further Behind Minnesota
Friday, August 29, 2014 5:57 PM EDT
Surprisingly, the cumulative growth gap between Minnesota and Wisconsin (relative to 2011M01) is forecasted to grow — rather than shrink — over the next six months. And what about Kansas?
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“U.K. Wants EU To Block Russia From SWIFT Banking Network”
Friday, August 29, 2014 2:12 PM EDT
Russian economic authorities themselves accede to the increasing likelihood of recession, just as non-Russian forecasters.
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