Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more

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The Trend Break In CPI
While the CPI trend breaks at 2022M06, matching the peak in oil prices, core CPI doesn’t such evidence.
Six Measures Of Consumer Prices
Despite the more frequent updating of weights in recent years’ worth of headline CPI, chained CPI (a research series) rises less. On the other hand, the CPI for wage and clerical workers rises slightly more than headline.
Grocery Prices Decline
The latest CPI release indicates a decline in food-at-home prices. At the national level, the food-at-home component has been dropping for three months now. The USDA’s ERS forecast for end-of-year CPI has consequently declined slightly.
Manufacturing Over The Long Term
While total manufacturing employment is just above pre-trade war levels, and (gross) manufacturing production is just about even, real value added is far above.
Currency Misalignment Measured Assuming A Balanced Financial Account
The Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Blue Collar Dollar Institute have developed a measure of currency misalignment, reported in their latest Currency Misalignment Monitor.
“Is The Boom-And-Bust Business Cycle Dead?”
Aside from the pandemic-related recession, GDP volatility has been much smaller. The length of expansions as determined by NBER has also increased.
Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It’s Off To FX War We Go!
Well, if the US could drop interest rates while forcing other countries to raise their own, this would (in the absence of whatever turmoil in financial markets this might cause) depreciate the dollar.
“You Have To Look Pretty Hard To Find The 'Trade War' Effect In The Data”
That’s a quote from Bruce Hall, referring to the period 2011 onward. For his reference, I present key indicators of the manufacturing sector during the Trump trade war.
Manufacturing Malaise?
Manufacturing employment is up relative to 3 years ago. Why so much dissatisfaction?
In Recession? Real Time Vs. Final Revised Data
Di Martino Booth points to the McKelvey rule, which uses a 0.3 ppt threshold instead of the Sahm 0.5 ppt threshold. This indicator does seem to signal a recession.
May 2024 Short Term Energy Outlook: WTI, Gasoline Prices
EIA's latest report notes a forecast slightly above futures. Referencing Chinn and Coibion (2014) on oil futures forecasting performance. Gasoline forecast and context on US gasoline prices provided.
Consumption Per Capita Relative To Trend
Are you better off than you expected four years ago? I use trend growth 2016-2019 to figure out what is “expected”.
Decomposing Sentiment
Republicans and lean Republican respondents really, really, really don’t like economic conditions right now, switching “bigly” upon Trump’s election, contributing to an outsize impact on the overall University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Are You Better Off Than You Were Four Years Ago?
I’d say, by these measures, the answer is “yes”, even using median income.
Confidence, Sentiment, And News In April: Some Time Series
Sharp reactions to Conference Board consumer confidence index today.
Four Measures Of The Output Gap And Measuring Trends
Discussing a policy shift tomorrow regarding the output gap and trend-cycle decomposition. Displaying CBO's output gap data using statistical filters and Delong and Summers' model.
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