Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 4

Menzie Chinn

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more
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Conference Board Revises 2024 Outlook Up
Sunday, March 24, 2024 11:30 AM EDT
Interestingly, the Conference Board sees near zero growth in 2024Q2-Q3. This is consistent with the term spread based predictions which show a high probability of recession in 2024Q2.
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Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Years Ago
Thursday, March 21, 2024 7:45 PM EDT
The cumulative growth is similar, although if nowcasts and forecasts hold up, they’ll soon diverge. And in terms of growth rates, they’re pretty closely matched.
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FOMC March SEP On GDP
Wednesday, March 20, 2024 9:45 PM EDT
2024 q4/q4 growth at 2.1% matches FT-IGM survey discussed in our previous post.
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Is The Fed Looking At FAIT? If So, What Would It Imply?
Tuesday, March 19, 2024 12:55 PM EDT
To hit FAIT trend by end-2026, starting from when the new monetary strategy was published, the Fed would need to engineer deflation (of about 0.8% on an annual basis).
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Immigration 2021-23: Supply And Demand Shock
Tuesday, March 19, 2024 3:00 AM EDT
Recent studies suggest that Census data used for the household survey of the employment report understated immigration in 2023.
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March FT-Booth Macroeconomists Survey: GDP, Recession, R*
Monday, March 18, 2024 11:20 PM EDT
The FT-Booth Macroeconomist Survey was released today. GDP is slated to grow 2.1% in 2024, q4/q4.
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“Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch”
Monday, March 18, 2024 1:34 PM EDT
From a sentiment standpoint, food prices are particularly salient because they — like gasoline prices — are encountered by consumers with relatively high frequency.
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Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March 2024
Friday, March 15, 2024 5:40 PM EDT
Industrial production is near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on the upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m).
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“Inverted Yield Curve No Longer Reliable Recession Flag, Strategists Say”
Friday, March 15, 2024 3:11 PM EDT
We are currently about a year and a half from when the 10yr-2yr spread went negative, It’s still too early to say we’re safe, despite the apparent strength of the economy right now (well, as of February’s data).
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Russian Growth Slows
Thursday, March 14, 2024 8:30 PM EDT
According to the monthly estimate published by the Russian Ministry of Economy, the annual growth of Russia’s GDP has clearly slowed down in recent months.
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Dot Plot Vs. Market Expectations
Thursday, March 14, 2024 6:47 PM EDT
A question was raised today regarding whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s, regarding the path of Fed funds rates.
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Is Velocity Stable?
Wednesday, March 13, 2024 3:45 PM EDT
An ADF test applied to both velocity series (in logs) fails to reject unit root null, while a KPSS test applied to both series rejects at 5% msl the trend stationary null.
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Inflation In February 2024
Tuesday, March 12, 2024 6:07 PM EDT
Core CPI surprises (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) on the upside, while headline at consensus.
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GDP And Treasury Yields In The Administration Forecast
Monday, March 11, 2024 8:40 PM EDT
Both the CBO and the Administration forecast higher 10 year Treasury yields than economists in the SPF.
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The Employment Situation Release And Business Cycle Indicators For February
Friday, March 8, 2024 3:00 PM EDT
January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus.
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Biden-Trump: Some Economic Comparisons
Friday, March 8, 2024 12:45 AM EDT
GDP, employment, manufacturing, debt, unemployment, etc.
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