Menzie Chinn | TalkMarkets | Page 1

Menzie Chinn

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin
Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic issues. Menzie received a PhD in economics from the ...more
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One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations For 2025
Sunday, May 19, 2024 10:30 AM EDT
The SPF year ahead for May is at 2.51%, slightly above the 2.45% that I estimate is consistent with a 2% PCE. Interestingly, with median unit cost growth back at roughly April 2018 levels, there’s little evidence of a wage-price spiral.
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Eric Hovde Predicts
Sunday, May 19, 2024 4:32 AM EDT
From December 19, 2023 - Economic Slowdown: The U.S. is likely to enter a recession, with consumers expected to deplete their savings, leading to only one potentially positive GDP quarter in 2024.
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Recession Probabilities In Light Of The Ever-Receding Recession
Saturday, May 18, 2024 3:39 PM EDT
Estimated 12 month ahead recession probabilities are obtained using probit models. The first specification (blue line) is a plain vanilla term spread model estimated 1990-2023M04 assuming no recession in the US to 2024M04.
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May SPF GDP Forecast
Friday, May 17, 2024 12:29 PM EDT
Unlike the Nov ’23 and Feb ’24 trajectories, the gap between the Feb ’24 and May ’24 is trivial.
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Import Prices Surprise
Thursday, May 16, 2024 10:00 PM EDT
Import prices ex-petroleum show an uptick, raising GS's PCE deflator estimate by 1 bp. Import prices from China track the dollar/yuan but exclude tariff costs. Exchange rate pass-through is low, suggesting full tariff pass-through.
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Business Cycle Indicators Mid-May
Thursday, May 16, 2024 3:45 PM EDT
The latest Weekly Economic Indicators (for releases through May 11) indicates a jump above 2%, to 2.16%.
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The Trend Break In CPI
Thursday, May 16, 2024 2:24 PM EDT
While the CPI trend breaks at 2022M06, matching the peak in oil prices, core CPI doesn’t such evidence.
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Six Measures Of Consumer Prices
Thursday, May 16, 2024 7:46 AM EDT
Despite the more frequent updating of weights in recent years’ worth of headline CPI, chained CPI (a research series) rises less. On the other hand, the CPI for wage and clerical workers rises slightly more than headline.
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Grocery Prices Decline
Thursday, May 16, 2024 1:25 AM EDT
The latest CPI release indicates a decline in food-at-home prices. At the national level, the food-at-home component has been dropping for three months now. The USDA’s ERS forecast for end-of-year CPI has consequently declined slightly.
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Manufacturing Over The Long Term
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 12:21 AM EDT
While total manufacturing employment is just above pre-trade war levels, and (gross) manufacturing production is just about even, real value added is far above.
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Currency Misalignment Measured Assuming A Balanced Financial Account
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 1:26 PM EDT
The Coalition for a Prosperous America and the Blue Collar Dollar Institute have developed a measure of currency misalignment, reported in their latest Currency Misalignment Monitor.
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“Is The Boom-And-Bust Business Cycle Dead?”
Monday, May 13, 2024 4:00 PM EDT
Aside from the pandemic-related recession, GDP volatility has been much smaller. The length of expansions as determined by NBER has also increased.
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Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It’s Off To FX War We Go!
Monday, May 13, 2024 4:28 AM EDT
Well, if the US could drop interest rates while forcing other countries to raise their own, this would (in the absence of whatever turmoil in financial markets this might cause) depreciate the dollar.
In this article: VIX Also: UUP
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“You Have To Look Pretty Hard To Find The 'Trade War' Effect In The Data”
Monday, May 13, 2024 1:06 AM EDT
That’s a quote from Bruce Hall, referring to the period 2011 onward. For his reference, I present key indicators of the manufacturing sector during the Trump trade war.
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Manufacturing Malaise?
Sunday, May 12, 2024 8:00 PM EDT
Manufacturing employment is up relative to 3 years ago. Why so much dissatisfaction?
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In Recession? Real Time Vs. Final Revised Data
Thursday, May 9, 2024 10:30 PM EDT
Di Martino Booth points to the McKelvey rule, which uses a 0.3 ppt threshold instead of the Sahm 0.5 ppt threshold. This indicator does seem to signal a recession.
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