GDP Nowcasts - Sunday, April 14
Sunday, April 14, 2024 8:42 AM EDT
GDPNow and NY Fed close.
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Food Inflation Moderates
Thursday, April 11, 2024 11:25 PM EDT
Food at home prices have risen faster than the CPI overall, both nationwide and in the Midwest. However, the convergence has proceeded faster nationwide (mostly my overall CPI rising faster).
Instantaneous CPI, PCE Deflator, And PPI Inflation In March
Thursday, April 11, 2024 2:36 PM EDT
Instantaneous core CPI has flattened out, while both core PCE deflator and core PPI have declined.
Inflation Surprise
Thursday, April 11, 2024 11:47 AM EDT
While y/y core PCE inflation would be decreasing with the pre- and post-CPI release nowcasts, the q/qcore PCE inflation would now be rising instead of stabilizing.
Studies In Sophistry: Rich States, Poor States 17
Wednesday, April 10, 2024 1:55 AM EDT
Today, ALEC released the latest assessment of state-by-state economic outlook and economic performance, authored by Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams.
100 Years Of Recession Prediction Using The Term Spread
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 12:40 AM EDT
Recession probability over the next year is analyzed using a probit regression model based on the 10-year-3-month Treasury spread. The model's performance varies across different periods due to factors like Fed rate policies and capped long rates
Steve Hanke Says The Recession Cometh
Monday, April 8, 2024 4:10 PM EDT
With a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year.
Manufacturing’s Progress
Monday, April 8, 2024 11:39 AM EDT
Real value added and employment are about 6% higher than when Biden took office. Manufacturing production (which is a gross measure) is only about 2% higher.
Thinking About Trade War II
Sunday, April 7, 2024 7:51 PM EDT
At the beginning of the Trump Administration, the net exports to GDP ratio was -2.8%; by the end (2020Q4), it was -3.5%.
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Along With Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, And Sahm Rule
Friday, April 5, 2024 8:30 PM EDT
This article posts a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology. We can be fairly sure that employment growth is positive.
March Employment Indicators For Nonfarm Payroll
Friday, April 5, 2024 12:54 PM EDT
A look at the employment surprise in context.
A Really Very Long Series On The Real Rate
Tuesday, April 2, 2024 7:51 PM EDT
Aggregate population growth rates and real interest rates have structurally trended in opposite directions, except for the most recent decades.
2023Q4 GDP Advances In All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines In 5
Tuesday, April 2, 2024 12:40 AM EDT
Seven states exhibit negative growth in real personal income: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, and Hawaii. Coincident indices through January paint a different picture from that derived from GDP or real personal income.
An Event Study: News And Trump Media And Technology Group, Monday, April 1
Monday, April 1, 2024 9:55 PM EDT
The efficient markets hypothesis indicates that new information should induce a revision to the present discounted value of future dividends, and hence a change in the market value. Apparently, news came today.
In this article: DJT
Explaining The 2022-23 Disinflation Out-Of-Sample
Monday, April 1, 2024 5:00 PM EDT
The unemployment gap comes in with the right sign, albeit not statistically significantly so.
GDP, GDO, GDP+ And Final Sales
Sunday, March 31, 2024 10:02 AM EDT
With Q4 3rd release, we have an estimate of GDO, in addition to GDP.
