James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 5
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - Friday, Feb. 2
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return.
Major Asset Classes January 2024 Performance Review
Global markets were mixed in January following a strong finish in 2023 that lifted nearly all corners.
Initial Median Q1 GDP Nowcast For US Indicates Softer Growth
The initial median nowcast for this year’s first quarter suggests the expansion will continue to slow relative to the previous high point in last year’s red-hot Q3.
Despite Geopolitical Threats, Markets Still Lean Into Risk-On
There’s no shortage of troubling developments around the world, but markets are still inclined to embrace a risk-on bias.
Losses Prevail For Major Asset Classes In January
Red ink dominates 2024’s opening month for most of the major asset classes. The upside exceptions for the performance profile so far: US stocks, commodities and junk bonds.
Recession Forecasts Take A Beating After Strong Q4 GDP Growth
Predicting or nowcasting GDP data points with precision is challenging, but the econometric tools for estimating recession risk in real time, and in the near term, offer more traction.
Momentum Leads US Equity Factor Returns So Far In 2024
Will 2024 mark the return of the momentum factor to the performance spotlight? This risk premium’s star faded in 2023, but there are hints that a rebound may be brewing for this slice of the equity risk premium.
US Growth Slowdown Expected For Thursday’s Q4 GDP Report
Thursday’s GDP report is expected to show that growth was moderate in the final three months of 2023 – news that will support the ‘soft landing’ view that’s been popular with some economists.
Looking For The ‘Missing Link’ In Failed Recession Models
The housing-construction-worker factor, if correct, looks set to support the soft-landing forecasts in the near term.
US Stock Market At Record While Drawdowns Prevail Elsewhere
Wall Street celebrated on Friday when the S&P 500 Index, the most popular benchmark of US shares, closed at a record high for the first time in more than two years.
Moderate Growth Is Still The Estimate For US Q4 GDP
On Jan. 25, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is projected to report that growth slowed to a 1.9% gain (seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the revised median nowcast from Friday. That’s a sharp slowdown from Q3’s strong 4.9% increase.
Healthcare Sector Is Off To A Strong, Market-Leading Start In 2024
After a modest loss in 2023, shares in the healthcare sector are enjoying a market-leading rebound so far in the new year.
Does NY Fed Manufacturing Index’s Plunge Signal US Recession?
The sharp drop in the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business-conditions index in January triggered a wave of warnings.
Commodities Are Still An Intriguing Contrarian Trade
Reviewing 2023 results for the major asset classes reflects a long list of winners, with one conspicuous downside outlier commodities.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Friday, Jan. 12
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate.
Managing Expectations For December’s Consumer Inflation Report
A lot is riding on tomorrow’s US consumer inflation report for December for markets, which are pricing in relatively upbeat news.
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