James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 4
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Mixed Start For US Bonds So Far In 2024
Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close.
Interest Rates Are Still Biggest Short-Term Risk
It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist.
US Stocks Remain Upside Outlier For Major Asset Classes In 2024
It’s lonely at the top. American shares are posting strong year-to-date results in 2024.
US Treasury Market Misjudges Timing On First Rate Cut… Again
We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
American Stocks Continue To Lead Global Equities Ex-US In 2024
Betting on the demise of the long-running leadership of US shares over foreign markets has been a losing proposition for some time and the early going in 2024 suggests the trend persists.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - Friday, Feb. 2
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return.
Major Asset Classes January 2024 Performance Review
Global markets were mixed in January following a strong finish in 2023 that lifted nearly all corners.
Initial Median Q1 GDP Nowcast For US Indicates Softer Growth
The initial median nowcast for this year’s first quarter suggests the expansion will continue to slow relative to the previous high point in last year’s red-hot Q3.
Despite Geopolitical Threats, Markets Still Lean Into Risk-On
There’s no shortage of troubling developments around the world, but markets are still inclined to embrace a risk-on bias.
Losses Prevail For Major Asset Classes In January
Red ink dominates 2024’s opening month for most of the major asset classes. The upside exceptions for the performance profile so far: US stocks, commodities and junk bonds.
Recession Forecasts Take A Beating After Strong Q4 GDP Growth
Predicting or nowcasting GDP data points with precision is challenging, but the econometric tools for estimating recession risk in real time, and in the near term, offer more traction.
Momentum Leads US Equity Factor Returns So Far In 2024
Will 2024 mark the return of the momentum factor to the performance spotlight? This risk premium’s star faded in 2023, but there are hints that a rebound may be brewing for this slice of the equity risk premium.
US Growth Slowdown Expected For Thursday’s Q4 GDP Report
Thursday’s GDP report is expected to show that growth was moderate in the final three months of 2023 – news that will support the ‘soft landing’ view that’s been popular with some economists.
Looking For The ‘Missing Link’ In Failed Recession Models
The housing-construction-worker factor, if correct, looks set to support the soft-landing forecasts in the near term.
US Stock Market At Record While Drawdowns Prevail Elsewhere
Wall Street celebrated on Friday when the S&P 500 Index, the most popular benchmark of US shares, closed at a record high for the first time in more than two years.
Moderate Growth Is Still The Estimate For US Q4 GDP
On Jan. 25, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is projected to report that growth slowed to a 1.9% gain (seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the revised median nowcast from Friday. That’s a sharp slowdown from Q3’s strong 4.9% increase.
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