James Hamilton | TalkMarkets | Page 5
Professor of Economics at the University of California
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of California
James D. Hamilton has been a professor in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego since 1992. He served as department chair from 1999-2002, and has also taught at Harvard University and the University of Virginia. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University ...more

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Q3 GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s below the historical average U.S. growth rate of 3.1% per year. Even so, this was the best report in the last two years.
Re-Writing The (International) Textbook: Interest Parity Conditions
Uncovered interest rate parity is the proposition that expected interest rates, expressed in common currency terms, are equalized when capital is free to flow across borders, and assets are perfectly substitutable.
OPEC Production Cut
Once upon a time, OPEC regularly published crude oil production allocations for each of its members. If it were a functioning cartel, these would be interpreted as quotas or ceilings for each individual country.
Why Didn’t The Recent Oil Price Decline Help The U.S. Economy More?
Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian presented an interesting paper at the Brookings Institution last week that takes a detailed look at the effects on the U.S. economy of the dramatic oil price decline of 2014-2015.
Supply Cuts Lift Oil Prices
Global oil production was carried upward by Iraq, where postwar investments started to yield results in 2014, and by the lifting of sanctions on Iran last winter. These two countries today produce 2.2 mb/d more than at the start of 2013.
Fed Tightening Cycles
The Fed may be anticipating solid growth, but so far the bond market doesn’t seem to be. There’s really no evidence yet that inflation needs to be contained or that we should slow down the labor market.
Too Systemic To Fail
Bryan Kelly, Hanno Lustig & van Nieuwerburgh had an interesting paper in the June issue of American Economic Review that used option prices to measure the magnitude of the implicit US government guarantee of the financial sector during 2007-2009.
Why You Should Never Use The Hodrick-Prescott Filter
A common problem in economics is that most of the variables we study have trends. One popular approach is to remove the trend using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. I’ve just finished a new research paper highlighting the problems with this approach.
Anemic Economic Growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.2% annual rate in the second quarter. Not good news.
Helicopter Money
Despite aggressive actions by central banks, many of the world’s economies are still stagnating and facing new shocks, leading to renewed calls for helicopter money as a serious policy prescription for countries like Japan and the U.K.
Markets Post-Brexit
U.S. stock prices fell more than 5% in the two-day aftermath of the British vote to leave the European Union. But equities have since regained those losses and are back near all-time highs.
Economic Consequences Of Brexit
It is not as if leaving the EU suddenly tosses Britain into a trade war with the rest of the world. The U.S. and Canada have a huge volume of trade with Europe without being part of the EU.
Trends In Oil Supply And Demand
World oil production barely increased between 2005 and 2013. Yet this was a period when oil consumption from the emerging economies was growing rapidly.
Searching For Dividends In The Retail Sector
Right now the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast is calling for second-quarter real GDP growth of 2.5% at an annual rate while the New York Fed says 1.7%.
Expectations Of Inflation
The break-even inflation rate is sometimes used as an indicator of the rate of inflation that bond market participants are expecting. That number currently is around 1.6% for every maturity.
Another Weak Quarter For U.S. GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.5% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s disappointing, even by standards of the weak growth that has become the norm since getting out of the Great Recession.
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