James Hamilton | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Professor of Economics at the University of California
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of California
James D. Hamilton has been a professor in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego since 1992. He served as department chair from 1999-2002, and has also taught at Harvard University and the University of Virginia. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University ...more

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Measuring Monetary Policy Shocks
What are the effects on the economy when the Fed raises interest rates?
Strong GDP Growth, Weak Fundamentals
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s the second quarter in a row that the number has come in above the 3.1% average.
International Macroeconomics In The Wake Of The Global Financial Crisis
A decade after the eruption of the Global Financial Crisis, the world economy has returned to a more sustained pace of expansion. Yet major challenges still remain, as the engines of long-run growth have still not recouped their pre-crisis power.
Measuring Global Economic Activity
Measuring the level of global economic activity is of key interest. But the measures we have on variables like industrial production don’t cover all countries and are only available with a significant lag.
Great Second-Quarter GDP Report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter.
Worries About The Yield Curve
Is the flattening yield curve is a warning of impending weak growth or even a recession? My answer is not yet. Here’s why.
Is The Economy Overheating?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that the unemployment rate was down to 3.9% in April. That’s nearly as low as it’s been any time in the last half century. Does that mean the U.S. economy faces some problems ahead?
Comparative Performance Of The UK Economy
There was no recession after Brexit. But a slowdown looks like it’s here now…
A Little Slower Growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the first quarter.
A Skeptical View Of The Impact Of The Fed’s Balance Sheet
Assets held by the Federal Reserve quintupled between 2007 and 2014. The initial phase of this expansion took the form of emergency lending in the fall of 2008.
Analysis Of Current Economic Conditions And Policy
The non-petroleum deficit has increased over the past year. The manufacturing trade deficit has increased by $64.4 billion and I’m not holding my breath for a big decrease in the trade deficit.
The U.S. Economy Keeps Growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter.
Thoughts On Negative Interest Rates
The Fed was understandably reluctant to use negative interest rates as a policy option during the recent episode of economic weakness.
Steady Economic Growth Continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.0% annual rate in the third quarter.
Another Event To Study
The long-term interest rate rose about 3 basis points in response to the news, consistent with the conclusion from earlier event studies that expansions of LSAP bring the interest rate down while contractions drive it up.
The Great Unwind Begins
The reason the Fed may go back to growing its balance sheet within three years comes from thinking about the liability side of its balance sheet.
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