James Hamilton | TalkMarkets | Page 4
Professor of Economics at the University of California
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of California
James D. Hamilton has been a professor in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego since 1992. He served as department chair from 1999-2002, and has also taught at Harvard University and the University of Virginia. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University ...more

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The Great Unwind Begins
The reason the Fed may go back to growing its balance sheet within three years comes from thinking about the liability side of its balance sheet.
Reappoint Janet Yellen As Fed Chair
The economy and financial markets have performed very well while Yellen has been at the helm.
Are We In A New Inflation Regime?
The existence of a Phillips Curve is one of the Fed’s core assumptions: as unemployment gets lower, the inflation rate should pick up. We’ve seen a huge drop in unemployment over the last six years. In response, inflation did pretty much nothing.
Fed Balance-Sheet Reduction Not Scaring Anyone
Today the Federal Reserve announced that it is increasing its target for the fed funds rate to a new range of 1 to 1.25%, a development that surprised no one.
Treasury Debt Held By The Public
How much does the U.S. government owe? The number that is subject to the recurrent debt-ceiling wrangling includes intra-government debts that the Treasury is imputed to owe to other Federal government operations.
Economy Off To A Slow Start For 2017
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.7% annual rate in the first quarter, weak even by the post-recession average annual growth rate of 2.1% and far below the U.S. historical average of 3.1%.
China’s Tetralemma
China’s leaders may fear that allowing the yuan to fall more rapidly against the dollar could undermine confidence in the government and make it harder for Chinese firms to pay back dollar-denominated debts.
How The Federal Reserve Controls Interest Rates
The way in which the Fed controls the short-term interest rate today is totally different from the way things worked 10 years ago. I was looking for a good description of how the current system works and couldn’t find one, so decided to write my own.
Repealing Dodd-Frank And Basel III
One of the responses to the financial turmoil of 2008 was new legislation and regulation intended to prevent such a disaster from recurring. But today there are powerful voices seeking to amend or overturn these measures.
The Slowdown In U.S. Economic Growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the fourth quarter, well below the historical average of 3.1% per year, but close to the 2.1% average since the recovery from the Great Recession.
Measuring The Economic Effects Of Uncertainty
One measure of uncertainty that economists sometimes look at is VIX, which is a measure of the square root of the variance of next month’s stock returns as inferred by the prices of stock options that will pay off if there's a big change up or down.
Back To Normal?
The Fed has a long-run goal of seeing the inflation rate around 2%. In earlier decades, the big challenge was how to keep inflation from rising well above that target. But over the last 8 years, inflation has been coming in persistently below 2%.
Factors In Low Real Interest Rates
The real return on long-term government bonds has dropped steadily over the last 30 years, falling from values around 4% to something closer to zero or even negative for many countries today.
Rising Interest Rates And The Term Premium
While the 10-year rate is up 50 basis points since the election, the 3-month rate has only risen 4 basis points. What we’ve seen is a rapid increase in the spread between long and short rates and a sharp steepening of the yield curve.
Mr. Trump And The Markets
As polling results came out, S&P 500 futures prices plunged 5%. But it turned out that the market recovered all of that loss the next morning. And stocks ended last week 2% higher than they had been before the election.
New Data Sources For Economic Research
Many Americans track their checking and credit card accounts using financial apps. A new research paper uses data from over a million users of a financial app to draw some new conclusions about consumer spending behavior.
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