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Markets And Macro
Article By: Marc Chandler
Sunday, April 22, 2018 10:38 AM EDT
Worries about a trade war appear to have eased, at least for the moment, but that does not make investors worry-free. The concerns have shifted toward rising US interest rates, perhaps more than anything else, but general anxiety seems elevated.
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The Tide Of Global Debt Has Peaked: What May Happen Next
Article By: Paul Hodges
Sunday, April 22, 2018 10:24 AM EDT
The IMF's new World Economic Outlook is warning that a global debt crisis could coincide with an economic downturn by 2020. These eight charts explain why this is happening, and how to prepare for it.
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Commonwealth: Brexit Poses A Pressing Trade Problem For Smaller Nations
Article By: Global Economic Intersection
Sunday, April 22, 2018 1:00 AM EDT
The UK tends to focus on a select group of larger Commonwealth economies while giving less priority to smaller developing countries for whom Brexit represents a possible threat.
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Behold: An ‘Incubator For Vicious Steepeners’
Article By: The Heisenberg Report
Saturday, April 21, 2018 7:13 PM EDT
The latter part of this week was interesting to the extent the resurgence of the inflation narrative seemed to be at least partially responsible for a (probably fleeting) reversal of the previously inexorable flattening of the curve.
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E China’s Slow But Steady Rebalancing Of Its Economy
Article By: Arthur Donner
Saturday, April 21, 2018 5:30 PM EDT
China’s economy and its economic policies have received considerable attention not only because the country’s economic growth rate still remains remarkably high, but also because of the impact that China’s successes have had on the global economy.
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Is Trump Really Special? Economic Policy Uncertainty Edition
Article By: Menzie Chinn
Saturday, April 21, 2018 11:09 AM EDT
I still believe that economic policy uncertainty as measured by the news based index is elevated.
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Sell The Rips---The Delusions Of MAGA, Part 3
Article By: David Stockman
Saturday, April 21, 2018 6:00 AM EDT
Since the election, inflation-adjusted paychecks have gone nowhere and almost anything else you can name business investment, employment and even real GDP continue to slog along in the tepid "recovery" channel that has prevailed since 2010.
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Strategery
Article By: The Heisenberg Report
Friday, April 20, 2018 5:15 PM EDT
Things getting really interesting now, as 10Y yields are within shouting distance of 3% having moved quickly back to February highs and beyond (highest since 2014).
In this article: BITCOMP, QQQ, SPX, DJI, OIL, TNX, GBB, JYN, AAPL
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Bad Bankers Drive Out Good Bankers: Wells Fargo, Wall Street, And Gresham’s Law
Article By: John Rubino
Friday, April 20, 2018 4:33 PM EDT
Back in the 1500s, a financial agent of Queen Elizabeth I named Thomas Gresham observed that that “bad money drives out good.”
In this article: WFC
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Emerging Markets: What Changed - Friday, April 20
Article By: Marc Chandler
Friday, April 20, 2018 3:20 PM EDT
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Qatar (+4.8%), Russia (+3.3%), and Singapore (+2.9%) have outperformed this week, while Mexico (-3.1%), Taiwan (-2.4%), and the Philippines (-2.2%) have underperformed.
In this article: EWT, EEM, EWZ, TUR
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8 Things To Know About Last Week's CBO Report
Article By: Daniel Nevins
Friday, April 20, 2018 1:53 PM EDT
The CBO released its ten-year budget outlook last week. Before you take the report at face value, here's what you need to know.
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Digesting Friday’s Draghi, ECB Headlines
Article By: The Heisenberg Report
Friday, April 20, 2018 1:31 PM EDT
Although the ECB is gingerly tapering asset purchases, rate hikes are still a distant prospect and there’s still no guarantee that QE won’t be tapered further (to say, €10 billion/month) in September, before it’s wound down completely.
In this article: FXE
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From Fake Boom To Real Bust
Article By: MN Gordon
Friday, April 20, 2018 12:32 PM EDT
The economy’s been on a continuous growth streak since June 2009. That’s a remarkable run. In fact, it’s the second longest economic growth period for the U.S. in the post-World War II era.
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Canada’s Future Is Not In Pipelines
Article By: Danielle Park, CFA
Friday, April 20, 2018 12:13 PM EDT
We must resist short-term focus and pressure to borrow more debt and waste more cash developing antiquated energy sources, and instead double down on developing longer-term prosperity and health with our vast sustainable resources.
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An Asymmetric Opportunity In Precious Metals
Article By: Macro-Ops
Friday, April 20, 2018 10:14 AM EDT
There are big long-term trends that are going to reshape markets and the world over the next few decades.
In this article: GLD, SLV
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E China Will Do Everything In Its Power To Avoid A Trade War
Article By: Arthur Donner
Friday, April 20, 2018 9:59 AM EDT
So far China’s response to the trade irritants has been carefully calibrated, and in each case almost exactly matched the scope of the US provocation.
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