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Upfina

Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. Please familiarize yourself with our full more
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Latest Posts
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Impact Of Tax Hikes On Stock Market
Thursday, March 25, 2021 10:19 PM EDT
The economy is starting to heat up. That’s not the best news for cyclical stocks because it’s largely priced in.
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Tech, Oil, Staples & March Job Creation
Wednesday, March 24, 2021 9:43 PM EDT
Consumer spending and job creation are coming back in March. The US economy is healing.
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Are We In A Bubble?
Tuesday, March 23, 2021 11:00 PM EDT
This has been the worst year for short sellers ever. There are practically no short-sellers left.
In this article: SPX
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Most Had A Financially Good 2020?
Monday, March 22, 2021 11:59 PM EDT
The market still doesn’t fully understand that the Fed doesn’t plan to hike rates in the next 3 years.
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Historic Selloff In Treasuries
Friday, March 19, 2021 9:08 PM EDT
The selloff in treasuries has been a huge victory for short-duration stocks like energy. It has been bad for expensive cloud names.
In this article: IEF, TLT, BITCOMP
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The Biggest Tail Risk
Thursday, March 18, 2021 11:08 PM EDT
Investors think higher than expected inflation is the biggest tail risk the market faces. The Fed is only predicting 2.4% PCE inflation and 2.2% core PCE inflation this year.
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Will A Higher Ten Year Yield Cause A Decline In Stocks?
Wednesday, March 17, 2021 9:33 PM EDT
The stock market will be less popular for retail traders this summer when other entertainment options are available. Biden plans to raise taxes on the rich. That will hurt equities.
In this article: IEF, XLE, SPX
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Things Change, But Do They Last?
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 9:48 PM EDT
The yield curve shifted. The new trend is to bet on reopening stocks. The banks and energy are now momentum names.
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Stock Market Cycles & Upcoming Decade
Tuesday, March 16, 2021 5:43 AM EDT
Spending and consumer sentiment are spiking. That spike in spending happened before the stimulus. Spending in the 2nd half of March will be above the pre-pandemic level.
In this article: IEF, SPX
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US Stimulus & Impact On Inflation
Saturday, March 13, 2021 11:48 AM EDT
The February CPI report was expected to be weak. Its weakness doesn’t mean CPI isn’t a real measurement. We will see it rise in the next few months. The bond market shouldn’t care about this CPI report.
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Will Low Quality Lose Again?
Friday, March 12, 2021 7:33 PM EDT
The labor market data will only get better. We should easily see half a million jobs added in March. Fed rate hikes are expected.
In this article: XLU, SPX
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Inflation Is Coming But Will It Be Transitory?
Thursday, March 11, 2021 12:03 AM EDT
The stock market is having the greatest factor rotations since the tech bubble burst. That’s a bad sign for growth stocks despite their victory on Tuesday.
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The Ceiling For Treasury Yields
Wednesday, March 10, 2021 2:30 AM EDT
As the 10-year Treasury yield rises above the stock market’s dividend yield, there is a debate that suggests this means stocks are a bad place to be. That’s nonsense because stocks have a free cash flow yield.
In this article: IEF, TYX
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The Start Of A Comeback For Leisure & Hospitality
Tuesday, March 9, 2021 8:04 AM EDT
The recession in the leisure and hospitality industry is over due to the vaccinations. This industry created the most jobs in February. West Virginia’s 7 day average of new COVID-19 cases has fallen from 1,524 on January 7th to 227 on March 7th.
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Is This A Leading Indicator For The Jobs Market?
Saturday, March 6, 2021 3:03 PM EDT
The February Challenge Job Cut report showed much fewer cuts than in January. The labor market is beginning to heal. Cuts fell from 79,552 to 34,531. That’s a 39% decline from last year when the pandemic was just starting.
In this article: BNO, GS, JNJ, WTI, USO
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A Contrarian Indicator As Business Activity Hits A 6.5 Year High
Friday, March 5, 2021 5:45 AM EDT
The ADP report was weak. We don’t know if that means the BLS report will be weak. The ADP report has had a bad track record since the recession.
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