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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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Inflation Expectations Increase Mildly
Saturday, May 15, 2021 11:29 PM EDT
The market doesn’t expect inflation to stay as high as it was in April. Keep that in mind before you short the reflation trade. Higher inflation is bad for stocks, but it’s not bad enough to cause a crash.
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Big Inflation Print
Thursday, May 13, 2021 7:37 PM EDT
CPI exploded in April which is consistent with almost every economic metric we have reviewed and almost every earnings report we’ve read. For some reason, this was a big surprise to economists. This report was the biggest positive surprise ever.
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Extremely High Dislocation In The Labor Market
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 12:30 AM EDT
Permanent unemployment rose in April, but the BLS report was a blip. Job openings are spiking much quicker than hires which signals high dislocation in the labor market.
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Biggest Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Since 1998
Tuesday, May 11, 2021 12:14 AM EDT
The April labor report was so shocking it seems incorrect. It was nothing like the solid ADP report.
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Big Expansion In Productivity
Friday, May 7, 2021 8:47 PM EDT
The Q1 Productivity and Costs report was very impressive. Annualized productivity growth rose from -3.8% to 5.4% which beat estimates for 5.4% despite the 0.4% positive revision to Q4 results.
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Lowest Job Cuts Since June 2000
Friday, May 7, 2021 12:44 AM EDT
The labor market is tightening quickly. Do not fall into the trap of thinking we are too early in the business cycle to have worker shortages.
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Monthly Labor Report Should Be Strong
Thursday, May 6, 2021 5:48 AM EDT
The labor market is running hot. As you can see from the chart below, there were 742,000 private-sector jobs added in April according to the ADP report.
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Inflation Is Running Rampant
Wednesday, May 5, 2021 5:32 AM EDT
The ISM and Markit manufacturing PMIs went in opposite directions this month. The ISM PMI fell modestly. Keep in mind, this is a diffusion metric. It measures sentiment versus the prior month.
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Jobless Claims Fall Further
Monday, May 3, 2021 2:18 PM EDT
Our thesis for the past few weeks has been that the labor market is doing better than initial jobless claims signal. The labor market is actually getting closer to labor shortages, which isn’t what jobless claims figures have suggested.
In this article: JPM
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M&A Activity In Banking At Record Setting Pace
Wednesday, April 28, 2021 8:59 PM EDT
We are only 4 months through 2020, yet the annual deal value of bank and thrift M&A is already near the long-term average. This year is easily going to beat out every year from 2011 to 2020 except 2019.
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Double Digit CPI?
Tuesday, April 27, 2021 6:39 PM EDT
It’s incredible to see the large rapid spikes in commodity prices in the past few months while seeing CPI stay below 2%. Easier comps will eventually get it to 3% this summer, but that doesn’t seem like enough.
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A Catalyst For Higher Stocks?
Monday, April 26, 2021 9:48 PM EDT
New home sales exploded in March. The yearly data is skewed because of the pandemic and the monthly data is skewed because of the bad weather in February.
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Why CFOs Aren’t Boosting Capex
Friday, April 23, 2021 3:30 PM EDT
CFOs don’t invest more in Capex because of a lack of need to expand capacity. There isn’t any other reasonable response since uncertainty and the need to preserve cash are low.
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How Stock Bubbles Die
Thursday, April 22, 2021 10:00 PM EDT
The megatrends in the next decade are increased wages for workers and declines in corporate profit margins.
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EPS Expectations Are Very High
Thursday, April 22, 2021 8:41 AM EDT
The housing market is mostly driven by demographics and low rates, but it’s also being helped by those buying 2nd homes and investments.
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Rare Sell Signal As Everyone Is Invested
Wednesday, April 21, 2021 7:47 AM EDT
Generally, oil stocks are correlated with the price of oil which makes perfect sense because oil producers sell the commodity. Plus, oil services companies raise prices when oil goes up and are forced to take concessions when they fall.
In this article: OIL
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