Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 4
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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The SPR Drain Resumes….43% Gone
The US appears to have accelerated releases from the SPR, this week 2.9mil BBL lower from the 2mil pace of recent weeks.
SPR Drain Resumes
Total US Crude Inventory declines 3.3mil BBL (1.3mil working and 2mil SPR).
Employment Number Remain Positive
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 253,000 in April, compared with the average monthly gain of 290,000 over the prior 6 months.
Interesting Buying Signal
Pessimism always presents buying opportunities. This period is particularly opportunistic.
Be Patient
The weekly SP500 Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions established a new record last week for the length of time of below -200 for this sentiment indicator.
S&P And Employment
The SP500 has always strongly correlated with rising employment, SP500 vs Household Survey, but not this time.
Truth Tonnage Rising
Some basic economic readings continue to push forward that would cast doubt on recession calls.
Real Personal Income And Retail Sales Holding
Real Personal Income and Retail Sales have been holding at recent highs despite voluminous calls for recession and claims that consumers have pulled back spending.
Fed Indices Indicate Buying Opportunity
The current environment remains, in my perspective with rising employment, as good and perhaps even better a time to invest in equities as we have had the last half-century.
Retail Sales Surprise
At some point, investors should expect the high level of retail activity to normalize to the trend pre-COVID.
Oil Prices Are Not An Economic Predictor
One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing.
It’s Just Odd Out There
Markets operate on shifting narratives. But, the headlines of monthly reports are without context other than was it in line or better/worse than expected.
Are We Done Raiding The SPR?
The market sees a recession that is not present interpreting the rise of US working inventories as a sign of economic slowing. It is not.
Sentiment Vs Fundamentals
Fundamentals remain in a strong uptrend. Ignore the consensus and trust the fundamentals.
Over 40% Of The SPR Drained
If something goes wrong it’ll be really bad really fast.
Pessimism Growing
The current environment is as pessimistic as any of past periods which proved later to have been significant opportunities to add capital to equity markets.
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