Jeffrey P. Snider | TalkMarkets | Page 72
Chief Investment Strategist
Contributor's Links: Eurodollar University
Jeff is an Investment Strategist and currently runs Eurodollar University. Formerly the Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheaded the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambras client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital ...more

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Not Only No Labor Shortage, Latest Labor Market Data Is Closer To Rate Cuts
Rate cuts really do make sense; not that they will help but that this becomes so obvious even Jay Powell will, kicking and screaming, acknowledge he has no other choice. Sooner than you might think.
Third Time’s The Charm, Or Is It Strike Three?
They will have to be forced into it. There is no voluntary rate cut and there never has been. This idea, however, is what’s being offered today in the wake of another stubborn line in the sand.
The Rate Cut Boom
Rate cuts and stock market highs. Those two things don’t belong together, at least as both describing the same economy.
COT Blue: Broad Interest For The Bond Next Move
I stick to the long bond; it is the exception to the rule that nothing stands still. Unlike the futures for the other tenors, the long bond is what it has always been.
Bonds And Economists At It Again
Federal funds is up again. As of yesterday, the 29th, the effective rate (EFF) is now 5 bps above IOER. That takes it to within 5 bps below the top of the Federal Reserve’s policy range.
The Global Squeeze; US, Canada, China
Without eurodollar support, the noose will tighten, the world’s system strangled which, deprived of necessary oxygen, only leads to a proliferation of weakness, then minuses. You and I don’t need the eurodollar. Economic growth does.
What Tokyo Eurodollar Redistribution Really Means For ‘Green Shoots’
The crucial reverse for the Tokyo Eurodollar Express isn’t some huge mystery, nor is the timing. A booming China reduces risk. A “quality” growth China amplifies it.
Globally Synchronized…
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada throws in the towel on its end of the global economy. Then Sweden follows the example. What seems synchronized is a downturn.
GDP: Deja Vu
The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates total economic output expanded by 3.12272% in Q1 over Q4 2018. Considering mounting uncertainties and growing fears, in the face of a lot of increasingly negative data, it was for many a welcome green shoot.
Durably Sideways
Even should sideways stick through revisions, sideways is not growth. And seven months is a very long time to have gone without it.
Canada Signals Japan For Bond Yields
Back in October, late October specifically, the Bank of Canada removed the word “gradual” from its policy statement. Inflation, staff Economists projected, was moving up as was the Canadian economy. It was finally time to become more aggressive.
When The Problem Lies In The One Place Nobody Looks
The US central bank unleashed powerful, novel liquidity programs, an ultra-loose response to growing crisis. Global panic happened anyway. Its officials assured full economic recovery from the genius of bond buying. It never came.
China’s Dollar Problem Comes Out Of The Shadows
For once, at least, they can’t blame “rate hikes” and QT. China’s growing dollar problem predates both by many years.
COT Blue: Distinct Lack Of Green But A Lot That’s Gold
Gold, in my worldview, can be a “heads I win, tails you lose” proposition. If it goes up, that’s fear. Nothing good. If it goes down, that’s collateral. In many ways, worse.
China Doves
A little less than three weeks ago, the overnight unsecured money market rate for Chinese renminbi (RMB), SHIBOR, had fallen sharply to 1.417%. This was among the lowest in history, though it has been happening more frequently since last summer.
The Eurodollar, Unfortunately, Is What Is Rebalancing China’s Services Economy
In Q4 2018, year-over-year growth in Tertiary Industry was 9.5%, the lowest on record. In Q1 2019, now 9.0% and a new lowest on record.
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