Jeffrey P. Snider | TalkMarkets | Page 73
Chief Investment Strategist
Contributor's Links: Eurodollar University
Jeff is an Investment Strategist and currently runs Eurodollar University. Formerly the Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheaded the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambras client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital ...more

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Federal Funds Rate Is Communicating (Again)
There is no money in monetary policy. But effective money still matters, a lot more than mere official communication.
Easter Doesn’t Change Curve Crazy Retail Sales
The adjusted number for March suggests retail sales rebounded from a drop in February. Maybe even a large comeback. Month-over-month the increase was 1.4%. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 3.6%.
PMI Eruption
In 2019, the Fed’s pause isn’t the only supposed dovish turn. The ECB is back at it, having canceled its rate liftoff. And the PBOC is doing things that nobody ever cares that much to truly understand.
Only Partial Springtime Sentiment Shift, ECB Edition
While Draghi’s reassuring pabulum made for headlines and widely disseminated media content, not everyone over there at the ECB is so confident.
Springtime Sentiment Shift, Germany Edition
Germany’s ZEW survey became the latest to pick up a pick up in the sentiment. This particular appraisal had been one of the first early on last year to suggest a beginning slide toward downturn.
China’s Blowout IP, Frugal Stimulus, And Sinking Capex
It had been 55 months, nearly five years since China’s vast and troubled industrial sector had seen growth better than 8%. Not since the first sparks of the rising dollar, Euro$ #3’s worst, had Industrial Production been better than that mark.
The Rest Of February TIC
The rest of the TIC data was relatively straightforward, at least in viewing it as a proxy for monetary conditions offshore.
Green Shoot Or Domestic Stall?
Where recovery was supposed to be in 2019, more and more it looks like stall speed, whatever that may be in this economic regime, instead. Nothing changed. There was no boom, not a real one anyway (a boom is sustained meaningful growth).
Eurodollar University: Epilogue 2, TIC & The Evidence For The Collateral Bid For Bonds
They said May 29 was Italians. I say it was collateral. Offshore repo collateral, to be specific. Because we keep seeing May 29 show up everywhere, what happened that day matters.
Eurodollar University; Epilogue, It’s Supposed To Be Really Easy To Print Money
In September 2012, the Federal Reserve’s third QE wasn’t the only major “rescue” of note. The Europeans had benefited from Mario Draghi’s “promise” earlier that summer but that was a little too vague.
Coloring One Green Shoot
China’s Passenger Car Association reported last week that retail sales of various vehicles totaled 1.78 million units in March 2019. The total was 12% less than the number of automobiles sold in March 2018.
Eurodollar University, Part 3: The Real Science Of Money
The repo rate above the federal funds rate is an assault on everything we’ve been taught. There is supposed to be a risk-driven hierarchy that governs financial markets, every single one of them. The global economy depends on it.
Eurodollar University, Part 2: Swaps First
Though we cannot observe the eurodollar directly, this credit-based, bank-centric system located out there in the shadows, it makes itself known in any number of different ways. We can observe those, leaving for us “only” interpretation.
Eurodollar University: Part 1 - Not Green Shoots, Shadow Prices
Federal Reserve officials are getting ready a standing repo facility to better tame EFF. They’d be wise to instead figure out why it’s misbehaving in the first place, what is it that swaps are telling us.
Labor Slowdown Already; Another Account Falls In Line Of May 29
May 29 wasn’t Italian populists, it was a full-on eurodollar break. What’s more, or less as these cases show, despite all the recent talk of “green shoots” the world remains stuck on the May 29 track.
The Long Running Circus Of Uncertainty Circles Back
It is a rare treat when central bankers from two major jurisdictions compete for the world’s misapprehending attention. We are right back in the same worst case because we never really left it.
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