James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 8
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes, Monday, December 4
Today’s revised, long-run forecast is unchanged at a relatively lofty 6.9% ex ante annualized total-return performance, matching last month’s estimate.
Major Asset Classes: November 2023 Performance Review
Global markets surged in November, except for commodities, which posted the only decline among the major asset classes last month, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Bond Market Rally
Investors are increasing their collective bets that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates, a bet that went into overdrive this week and ignited the strongest rally in bonds in 40 years.
A New Book Takes A Deep Dive At Solving The Portfolio Problem
Financial wisdom is said to be cyclical rather than cumulative, but that’s unfair. However, in the dominion of portfolio management and design, academics and money managers have made great strides in decoding cryptic market signals.
US Q4 GDP Nowcast Still Points To Moderate Growth
The recession that was widely predicted when the year began has only been postponed, some forecasters warn.
Will U.S. Stocks Lead Again In 2024? Big-Tech Has The Answer
Market-cap-weighted equities in the U.S. space, which are dominated by big-tech, are far and away the year-to-date leader, based on a set of ETFs.
Rally In US Stocks Inspires Bullish Outlook
Animal spirits are reviving after US shares rallied for a third straight week, fueled by renewed speculation that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are done and cuts are near.
Book Bits: Nov. 18, 2023
Jennifer Burns’s biography of the economist Milton Friedman arrives at a moment when his legacy is increasingly questioned. For his admirers, Friedman was a farsighted prophet of market economics, more capitalism as the way to more global prosperity.
U.S. Q4 GDP Outlook Appears On Track For Modest Growth
U.S. economic activity in the fourth quarter remains set for a sharp slowdown vs. Q3, but the pace of expected growth has strengthened recently.
10-Year US Treasury Yield Fair Value Estimate: Wednesday, Nov. 15
Today’s fair value estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield suggests that the Today’s fair value estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow.
Desperately Seeking Yield: Tuesday, Nov. 14
Current yields for major asset classes edged higher, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Nov. 13. The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to 3.83%, modestly above from the previous update’s 3.67% on Sep. 11.
Globally Diversified Portfolios On Track For Solid 2023 Gain
On paper, the set-up sounds toxic. An ongoing war on Europe’s eastern border, a new conflict in the Middle East that could turn into a regional battle, and sharply higher interest rates to combat inflation.
Book Bits: November 11, 2023
In public, Ray Dalio has all the markings of an icon. New York Times reporter Rob Copeland is here to shatter the illusion. On Tuesday, Copeland published a new biography, The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates.
International Stocks On Track To Trail US Equities In 2023
After world shares ex-US enjoyed a rare if unimpressive win over American shares in 2022, by losing less, the odds don’t look encouraging for a repeat run of outperformance in 2023.
Still Looking For A Clear Risk-Off Signal In Markets
Markets are churning as various threats raise questions about the path ahead, but for the moment it’s still not obvious that investors are throwing in the towel on risk assets.
US Q4 GDP Growth Still Appears Set For Substantial Slowdown
The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year.
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