James Picerno Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator

James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ... more

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There Are (Still) No Shortcuts For Estimating Recession Risk
St. Louis Fed recognizes that estimating recession risk is best pursued in a multi-factor framework. And for good reason: no one indicator is flawless in the art/science of looking for reliable and timely recession signals.
Across-The-Board Gains For The Major Asset Classes Last Week
After two weeks of red ink, all the major asset classes bounced back last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products through Friday’s close (Feb. 16).
A Closer Look At The Links For Stocks, Interest Rates, And Inflation
If inflation and rates rise faster than expected, it may be prudent to revise projections for equity returns for the medium-term horizon.
US Retail Spending Cools As Inflation Edges Higher
The US economic profile hit some turbulence in yesterday’s updates on retail sales and consumer inflation in January.
Treasury Market’s Inflation Outlook Dips From Four-Year High
The Treasury’s market’s implied inflation forecast last week reached the highest level since 2014, reflecting growing concern that pricing pressure is heating up.
Despite Market Turmoil, Momentum Factor Still Dominates
The recent spike in stock market volatility has dented the momentum factor’s powerful bull run, but the strategy continues to reign supreme over its main competitors in the US equity factor space, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
A Second Week Of Losses Weigh On All The Major Asset Classes
Red ink continued to spill across all the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The declines mark the second straight week of across-the-board selling.
Is It A Bear Market Yet?
The latest plunge in the US stock market left the S&P 500’s drawdown at a bit more than 10%. That’s the amount of red ink that brings usually out the “correction” label.
VIX Vs. Stock Market Volatility: Similar But Different
The recent plunge in the US stock market ended the extended run of tranquility in equity returns.
Federal Reserve Is Still Expected To Raise Rates Next Month
The stock market turbulence in recent days has rattled investors, but the Federal Reserve remains on track to lift interest rates at the March policy meeting, according to this morning’s implied forecast via Fed fund futures.
What Does History Tell Us About The Stock Market’s Dive?
The 4.1% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday looks ominous, all the more so since it follows last week’s hefty 3.8% decline.
All The Major Asset Classes Took A Hit Last Week
A red ink was spilled across all corners of global markets last week, reversing the previous week’s clean sweep of gains, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
Reviewing Last Week’s Stock Market Decline In Historical Context
How bad was last week’s rout in US equities? The slide is the biggest weekly drop for the S&P 500 Index in over two years.
US Hiring Rebounds In January But One-Year Trend Eases
Companies in the US added 196,000 workers in January, according to this morning’s report from the Labor Department. The gain beat expectations for a 172,000 increase.
Measuring Momentum’s Duration For The US Stock Market
The current momentum rally is arguably long in the tooth, but history suggests there may be more room to run.
ADP: US Payrolls Post Healthy Rise In January
Corporate payrolls increased by a robust 234,000 in January, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. The gain is slightly below December’s 242,000, although both numbers point to a solid rate of expansion in the labor market.
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