James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 2
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Floating-Rate And Junk Bonds Lead Fixed Income So Far In 2024
The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous.
Negative Equity Risk Premium Estimates Persist For US Equities
The roaring US stock market has delivered red-hot gains in recent history but at the expense of future returns.
Hope Springs Eternal, Again, For Small-Cap Equities
The stock market is soaring and the rising tide has lifted small-cap shares, but if you’ve been expecting a hefty premium in smaller firms, well, there’s still plenty of disappointment to process.
US Q1 Growth Nowcast Ticks Down, Suggests Expansion Is Slowing
The US economy remains on track to post a moderate growth rate in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report, but the expansion continues to show signs of slowing.
Fed Still Expects To Cut Rates Despite Sticky Inflation
The Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for core PCE inflation in 2024 but reaffirmed expectations that interest rates will probably fall by the end of the year.
Profiling A ‘Real Assets’ Portfolio During The Recent Inflation Surge
The sharp runup in US inflation in 2021-2022 revived the idea that a so-called real assets portfolio is crucial for asset allocation strategies. But with the peaking of inflation in mid-2022, that outlook has turned murky.
Expectations For June Rate Cut Continue To Fade
There are signs that the US economic growth is slowing, but not enough to trigger concern that the Fed needs to cut rates to counteract the threat of rising recession risk, which remains low.
Commodities Overtake US Stocks As Performance Leader In 2024
US equities are no longer leading the horse race for the major asset classes year to date, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
US Economic Growth Still Expected To Slow In Q1 GDP Report
A new round of nowcasts continue to estimate that US economic activity will downshift in next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data.
Markets Still Expect Rate Cut In June, But Doubt Is Creeping Higher
The mixed news on inflation earlier this week didn’t help, but neither did sticky inflation news derail expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Wednesday, March 13
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade well above a ‘fair value’ estimate.
Small Cap And Value Stocks Lag In This Year’s Rally
Shares of small companies and value stocks have had a tough time keeping up with the broad market in recent years, and the headwind for these risk factors is still blowing so far in 2024.
Is The US Labor Market As Strong As It Appears?
Friday’s payrolls data for February dispatched another upside surprise, reaffirming the now-consensus view that recession risk is low for the US economy.
US Growth Expected To Slow In Next Month’s Q1 GDP Report
Economic activity remains on a path to slow in the next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data, according to the median nowcast via a set of estimates.
Will Powell’s House Testimony Today Shift Rate-Cut Expectations?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify in the House today and markets will be all ears on topics that offer guidance on the outlook for interest-rate cuts.
Bubble Watch: S&P 500 Edition
Markets go to extremes, so keeping an eye on the outlier events can be productive because current conditions provide context for estimating expected returns.
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