Cullen Roche | TalkMarkets | Page 35
Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism. Orcam Financial Group, LLC is a low fee financial services firm ...more

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The Bear Market Playbook
As many markets enter bear market territory around the globe investors are inevitably getting skittish. Bear markets are a regular part of the financial markets, but that doesn’t make them easy to handle.
QE: “Printing Money” To Tax Your Own Citizens
The Fed reported $97.7B in net income for 2015, mostly thanks to the income it earned on its asset holdings via QE. And while the media will likely report this as a windfall profit, the reality is that this is a huge drag on the aggregate economy.
2008 Has Already Happened In The Energy Sector
We’re approaching a level of truly horrific returns in the energy space as the price of oil continues to crumble in the early days of 2016.
There’s Nothing “Natural” About The Economy And The Financial Markets
The point is that our entire economy is a human construct. It is created by animals who intervene in markets on a daily basis. We are all making discretionary decisions every minute of the day. There is no “natural” order to all of this.
Three Things I Think I Think – Lose Money With Friends Edition
Here are some things I think I am thinking about.
China, China, China
The year of China has started. I feel like I can’t read any financial news in 2016 without stumbling on how awful the Chinese stock market is. But let’s put things in perspective because we’ve been through this movie already just 6 months ago!
10 Useless Predictions For 2016
Stocks are at an increasingly high risk of underperforming bonds on a risk adjusted basis.
Indexing Doesn’t Win When It’s Implemented Via A High Fee Advisor
As the investment landscape shifts and you review your 2016 finances don’t find yourself in a backwards service paying high fees for something that is now being done by a multitude of firms in a truly low fee structure.
The Money Multiplier And The Myth That Just Won’t Die
Almost every mainstream economic textbook teaches the money multiplier theory of banking, that $1 of central bank reserves allows a bank to make $10 of loans. The basic premise works from the causation that Central Banks control the money supply.
The Importance Of First Principle Thinking
The nice thing about the financial system and the economy is that it’s a human construct.
What Is Portfolio "Risk"?
The idea of risk is a rather confusing and nebulous concept in modern finance. The traditional textbook definition of "risk" is standard deviation or volatility.
Saving Is Not The Key To Financial Success
The key to financial success isn’t saving, but investing in your own future production.
Control What You Can Control
Investors should be spending more time on what they can control (taxes and fees) and less time on what they can’t control (market returns).
Three Things I Think I Think – No, You’re Wrong, Edition
Over long periods of time commodity prices tend to decline or remain flat in real-terms. That makes sense since commodities make up a good chunk of the inputs in inflation.
The Confirmation Bias Of The Anti-Forecasters
The reality is that we shouldn’t shun forecasts. We should shun low probability forecasts. And as the evidence clearly shows, the shorter the time frame, the lower probability the forecast.
Are Junk Bonds Pointing To Economic Doom?
There is a good deal of worry in recent weeks over the sharp increase in junk bond yields and what they might portend for the future of the economy.
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