Cullen Roche | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism. Orcam Financial Group, LLC is a low fee financial services firm ...more

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The Outlook For Rate Cuts & The Risks To Markets
My baseline assumption is that growth will continue to moderate in the 2-3% RGDP range and the disinflationary trend will persist thru year-end, albeit at a lower rate than we saw last year. I expected Core PCE to end the year around 2.3%.
Some Midweek Reading - Economic Tightness And Easing Demand
Banks tightening lending standards are still elevated and consistent with an environment where credit is hard to obtain.
Chart Of The Week: The Softening Labor Market
Wednesday’s Fed decision was largely unsurprising. But the most important data point of the day came long before the Fed decision.
Three Views On The Yen “Collapse”
The Japanese Yen has been undergoing quite the roller-coaster ride in recent weeks and is now down over 45% vs the USD since 2020.
No Or November?
Higher rates for 2024 will mean that we’re about to find out how real those “long and variable lags” are.
Yes, The Labor Market Is Still Not Tight
One of the big lessons from the 2010-2020 environment was that headline payrolls could increase substantially without putting upward pressure on inflation.
Chart Of The Day: Lowered Expectations
In the last few years RGDP has averaged just 2.2%. More recently, GDP Now is expected to come in at 2.8% based on latest estimates. So, is this overheating? Is this even hot?
Weekend Reading – Inflation, Inflation, Inflation
Core PCE came in at 2.78% on Friday. This was the lowest rate of inflation we’ve seen since March of 2021 right before the big spike.
Q&A: Fed Rate Cut Edition
The Fed is concerned about the risk of sticky inflation, but they’re not overreacting because their baseline expectation is still a move towards the low 2% range.
Weekend Reading – Short Selling Is Good!
This week’s retail sales data came in at just 1.5% year over year which would put it near the bottom of the 10 year average. I suspect this is going to be the norm in the coming year.
Inflation Is Still In A Downtrend
Tuesday’s CPI report came in a touch hotter than expected at 3.2% on the headline and 3.8% on the core. Analysts were looking for 3.1% and 3.7%.
How Do Higher Interest Rates Push Inflation Down?
Interest rates are different and have a much more meaningful impact on the economy by impacting banks and credit markets.
Magazine Covers And Market Caps
Super Micro Computer is being added to the S&P 500. This probably won’t impact the overall returns much (if at all), but it raises some interesting questions about the passive decisions of active index funds like the S&P 500.
The Problem With 60/40
60/40 is a wonderful portfolio for anyone with an intermediate or long-term time horizon of 5-15 years.
How To Use Macroeconomic Investing Analysis?
Macroeconomics is the study of aggregate economies or large components of the economy.
The Holy Grail Of Investing
I have some exciting news to announce. I will be publishing a new book later this year that was titled “The Holy Grail of Investing”. I saw “was” because some guy named Tony Robbins just announced that he published a book by the same name today
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