S&P 500 Snapshot: Up 0.5% YTD

The S&P 500 has continued its bounceback as of Wednesday's close and is down 0.5% YTD and is 5.7% below its record close.

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S&P 500

The U.S. Treasury puts the closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.87%.

Here is a daily chart of the S&P 500. Today's selling puts the volume 18% below its 50-day moving average.

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S&P 500

Here's a snapshot of the index going back to December 2008.

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A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here's a snapshot of record highs and selloffs since the 2009 trough.

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S&P 500 Drawdowns

Here's a table with the number of days of a 1% or more change in either direction and the number of days of corrections (down 10% or more from the record high) going back to 2013.

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

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S&P 500 MAs

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

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S&P 500 MAs

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We've also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

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Disclosure: None.

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Comments

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Moon Kil Woong 6 years ago Contributor's comment

Give it time for everything to chug on. The market is still worried over trade war concerns because no one has yet said this is over yet. The other bigger concern in my book is inflation whether or not growth appears. Look to hedge by watching slow rotation into commodities which has already begun.

Two negative things can happen from here. The Federal Reserve gets antsy and raises rates too rapidly until they causes a downturn. Or inflation rises to the level where growth is merely inflation causing stocks to drop that can't grow faster than inflation. This doesn't have to happen, but they are risks.

The rosy outlook says the market adapts and grows with increased inflation and we get a few more good years in this long but slow growth cycle. This is also a real possibility.