Executive Officer at SME
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Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.

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E My Take On Recessionary Indicators
Despite the regularity of economic downturns and the existence of business cycles in a free market economy it is quite obvious that recession calling remains an art more than a science with the scientists being wrong consistently.
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Natural Gas Keeps Shooting Higher On Cold Risks
1 day ago

It's funny, like no one expected winter to come?

Weekly Forex Forecast - Sunday, Nov. 18
2 days ago

The dollar will keep heading higher as trade war rhetoric continues and oil prices recede in US dollar terms. Likely, inflation will rise as well if more tariffs get put in place. That said, the US economy is still pretty resilient and will shake off most of this turmoil. However, it would be nice if Washington pays attention to the economy and stock market before making further moves to disrupt it.

The Failing Trump Navarro Trade War
5 days ago

Any consumption tax will harm the economy implementing it. That is what tariffs really boil down to. Sadly, because so much is on raw materials and components used by American companies, this is hurting US companies as well as sparking mild inflation which is why the Federal reserve must keep raising rates. China is a big component of our supply chain because of the benefits it has provided US companies (a way to keep their prices low even as they raised prices for their brand name). Watch out for more headaches if they implement more tariffs on China. The rest of the untariffed products were left alone because they would hurt US companies.

Short Term Trend Is Trapped
8 days ago

You are correct. The Federal Reserve is raising rates in fear of inflation. I think the author was saying the Federal Reserve was afraid of a spike in oil prices which is no longer on the table. What the Federal Reserve is really worried about is higher prices (inflation) from more Chinese tariffs and a recession where it needs enough powder, higher rates, so they can have a positive effect when they drop them.

In this article: SPX
Auto Stocks Slide On Reports US Car-Import Probe Is Advancing
8 days ago

Trump is purposely or not destabilizing the good economy. Maybe its his idea to claim the decline is due to the Democrats taking Congress, however, he was doing this before they took Congress and is just more of the same. Threatening consumption tax without Congress' approval through tariffs, managing Middle East policy poorly, and angering our foreign allies. Destabilizing US tech companies is a rather new thing which also doesn't gain plaudits.

Anyways, the threat of car tariffs and probes is nothing new. Trump clearly hates the fact US cars don't sell well and rather than try to get US companies to be more competitive and improve their product he is blaming the Germans, Japanese, Chinese, etc. The only problem is he's blaming US automakers for outsourcing production and parts from Canada and Mexico too. In reality, this is not a proposal for a viable solution, but rather a road map to utter industry chaos. Much like his International policies, it is a lot of angst at everyone with little in the way of anything that leads to rational policies or a viable solution.

I'm rather disappointed and the market is starting to recognize the weakness of such lack of clear and viable solutions as well. Last off, consumption tax (which is what tariffs end up being) are just about the worst taxes you can put on your economy. It will kill all your economic gains from your tax cuts rather quickly.

Trump Versus Powell: Who Is Right About Immigration?
13 days ago

Sadly we now are so big the rest of the world can hardly bail us out if something went drastically sour. We can only rely on ourselves now. The good news is the US has been adapt at that throughout history.

Trump Versus Powell: Who Is Right About Immigration?
13 days ago

Clearly free trade has benefited the US and is necessary for the continued dominance of the US in the future. Few countries could hope for the wide net the US has in acquiring resources, manufacturing at competitive pricing, managing logistics, and dealing in markets all over the world. I hope we don't give it up.

That said, work can always be done to improve things and deal with unfair issues. China must reform faster than it has been doing. The issue is convincing them that it is in their interest as well as ours. In reality, I'm not sure it is. Their behavior prevents them for making closer ties with International companies like the US further up the value chain. Their obstruction of IP thwarts their move up the value chain as well. Likewise, their insistence on controlling the free flow of money prevents them from becoming a great International monetary powerhouse.

As in all things, there are costs to your actions. And what benefits you as a start up manufacturer can hurt you badly trying to move up the value chain. If anything, we are helping China telling them make these changes. In the end, manufacturing is a mobile industry and China will loose their manufacturing base the same way Europe lost it to the US, The US lost it to Japan, japan lost it to Korea, Taiwan, etc., and the rising tigers lost it to China. The wheels of the global economy don't stop. However, if you gum up the works it just passes you by.

No China Trade Deal Equals Weaker Stocks And GDP
14 days ago

Nice charts and information. Yes, the trade war is increasingly adversely affecting the US not just the rest of the world. The sooner it can be resolved the better. The fact Republicans lost the house puts even his trade deal with North American in doubt. He should have made trade deals and solidified them earlier if he was serious about making deals. Oh well, maybe he never expected them to take effect. It gives him something to blame others for.

Earnings Estimates Coming Down
14 days ago

#1 this is expected. Every quarter there can't be a stimulus package. Also, I think it is good because growth at the level we've seen shouldn't be expected and the Federal Reserve would likely end up having to raise rates if it continued. So lower rates and rational expectations are not a bad thing. I think the market has already taken lower growth next year into account. I'm always more concerned about bad analysts setting wrong expectations and the market punishing the companies for it.

In this article: TXN, XOM, LLY, MMM, RL, CVX, DIS, KORS, CAT, AAPL
Short Setups In Case The Midterms Get Messy
14 days ago

Really? We are not in a 3rd world country and have lived with split governments more than with non-split governments. Fear mongering about doomsday scenarios if one party or another wins anything is just that. Get over it and watch the market be fine tomorrow.

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Moon Kil Woong Commented on Natural Gas Keeps Shooting Higher On Cold Risks:

It's funny, like no one expected winter to come?

Moon Kil Woong Commented on Weekly Forex Forecast - Sunday, Nov. 18:

The dollar will keep heading higher as trade war rhetoric continues and oil prices recede in US dollar terms. Likely, inflation will rise as well if more tariffs get put in place. That said, the US econom...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on The Failing Trump Navarro Trade War:

Any consumption tax will harm the economy implementing it. That is what tariffs really boil down to. Sadly, because so much is on raw materials and components used by American companies, this is hurting U...

more
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