Executive Officer at SME
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Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.

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E My Take On Recessionary Indicators
Despite the regularity of economic downturns and the existence of business cycles in a free market economy it is quite obvious that recession calling remains an art more than a science with the scientists being wrong consistently.
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One Bank Goes There, Asks: ‘Could The Trade War Cause Another Great Depression?’
20 hours ago

Sadly Trumps threats have been so common no one really takes them to mind until they are implemented. By then he undermines himself by stating his potential intentions in the worst possible light so everyone can develop counters to his actions. All around, it is a terrible negotiating stance although saying everything is on the table tends to be a stronger play usually, thus you can't argue with his starting standpoint. Sadly, what matters is not your starting position but your ending one.

Already the Fed seems to now be the scapegoat for the potential economic repercussions of a trade war. And this is coming before anything major is implemented. In the meantime, China is not devaluation, his actions have caused the RMB to depreciate just like his debt budgeting is putting the US on bad footing if we head into a trade war where you want less debt not more if your enemy is your biggest creditor.

Bi-Weekly Economic Review - Friday, July 20
2 days ago

Great analysis. The administration can give the market relief at any time by dropping the trade war issue and moving on to another topic. Hopefully they will move on from complaining about the summer oil price issue as well given oil price drops aren't particularly good for the US being it is such a big oil producer itself. In fact, the oil price surge is mainly due to the US with Iran sanctions and slowdowns in domestic production increases caused mainly by drops in oil development spending.

Falling Starts
2 days ago

Housing prices are rising with the asset bubble, however building more housing tends to incur debt which is a thing everyone company is now starting to avoid, except when it is to give them leverage to be able to pay off their shorter term debt.

US Money Supply And Fed Credit – The Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious
2 days ago

Yes in any tightening the first ball to drop is usually some debt stricken emerging market country.

The Principle Of Bubble Rotation
2 days ago

It's less technology but growth people are paying through the nose for, and for good reason given the years of stagnant growth and now rising inflation.

Stuck Between A Rock, A Boulder And A Hard Place
2 days ago

There is already rotation towards low debt stocks and "safer" plays. Strangely, there are some stocks that will do just fine but a lot of stocks that won't if rates continue to rise. Sadly, i think the Federal reserve will be forced to keep raising rates because rates are going up with or without them. The Federal Reserve is reactionary to inflation and higher rates. They are not the instigators of higher rates although they have done plenty to cause asset inflation, especially in housing.

US Money Supply And Fed Credit – The Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious
3 days ago

Decreasing the money supply is ok as long as the economy is growing, especially given the pickup in the deficit through tax cuts. The issue is, a trade war can end growth rapidly but also causes inflation. Cutting money supply slows inflationary ramifications but leads to a dampening of economic activity which can be deadly combined with monetary tightening.

The sad fact is, it is dangerous tightening this late in the cycle and the Federal Reserve knows it. It is a travesty they tightened this late in the cycle and shows they have absolutely no self control anymore. Rather than smoothing out cycles they are contributing to bigger and more nasty cycles and they probably know it. Sadly, it gives them power.

5 Reasons Why Market Timing Is Not Always Bad
3 days ago

You are right about correlation, especially in market downturns. Sadly oftentimes diversifying actually puts those looking for more safety into more volatile investments that tend to do worse in downturns. in reality, if you think a downturn is coming then the best hedge tends to be in shorter term treasuries and stocks with little to no debt and free cash flow. Even then, you may get hit a bit but at least these investments recover or have a way out of losses *holding bonds to maturity or holding stocks until they recover).

Gas Prices Following The Seasonal Trend
4 days ago

The gas price screaming in Washington is absurd. As noted the summer price rise is nothing unusual. This is very dangerous behavior given that there is no emergency.

The Big Four Economic Indicators: June Real Retail Sales - Monday, July 17
5 days ago

The economy is doing better although some of the increased spending is due to inflationary pressure more than anything else. I don't see any major downturn in the next 6 months unless some war causes oil to rise sharply, the trade war turns uglier than it is already, or some unknown event causes everyone to be risk adverse suddenly.

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Moon Kil Woong Commented on One Bank Goes There, Asks: ‘Could The Trade War Cause Another Great Depression?’:

Sadly Trumps threats have been so common no one really takes them to mind until they are implemented. By then he undermines himself by stating his potential intentions in the worst possible light so every...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on Bi-Weekly Economic Review - Friday, July 20:

Great analysis. The administration can give the market relief at any time by dropping the trade war issue and moving on to another topic. Hopefully they will move on from complaining about the summer oil...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on Falling Starts:

Housing prices are rising with the asset bubble, however building more housing tends to incur debt which is a thing everyone company is now starting to avoid, except when it is to give them leverage to be...

more
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