Executive Officer at SME
Contributor's Links: Seeking Alpha Profile

Moon Kil Woong is currently a VP at a SME. Previously he was a tech stock consultant, VP of Research at ING, and sell side Director at Crédit Agricole Indosuez. Moon Kil Woong has a Masters in Public Administration from SJSU.

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E My Take On Recessionary Indicators
Despite the regularity of economic downturns and the existence of business cycles in a free market economy it is quite obvious that recession calling remains an art more than a science with the scientists being wrong consistently.
Read

Comments

Latest Comments
10 Years And 10 Lessons From The Financial Crisis
3 days ago

Good list. I'd add:

11. Worry about the big things but don't expect catastrophe tomorrow because of them. Downturns require catalysts.

Equally important is the list of things we haven't learned:

1. TBTF banks are bad. We let them get bigger and regulated them, however, this doesn't solve the problem. The problem is not solved until one of them is not big enough to take down our economy.

2. The Federal Reserve's easy money policies can go too far and create worse downturns that they can't resolve with their regular tools. The issue is not giving them new and more powerful tools like QE, but preventing them from misusing their tools like artificially lowering interest rates throughout the cycle so they are ineffective when we git a cyclical downturn. I can go on but its best if people just read basic economics books.

3. What banks are allowed to do in the derivatives market needs to spelled out and banks and financial institutions should not be allowed to offsheet their risk by creating and underwriting derivatives companies without massive disclosure. Furthermore, those companies that do write derivatives must prove they are able pay the derivatives bets they engage in. As all regulators know, it is impossible for the existing derivatives writers to pay out their risk if the market crashes badly. Why? Because the derivatives bets already engaged in exceed all the money in the world many times over. We are not talking about stock options or the like. We are talking about largely unregulated derivatives with very little liquidity.

4. There is risk in every decision. The biggest risk this cycle was keeping your money on the sidelines as housing, education, and healthcare costs skyrocketed. Getting in now is a bit late but the risks of not being in at all still remain making it painfully obvious why getting in early is better.

5. Last, inflation metrics are so wildly off what we need is a cost of living indicator in which to gauge your investment decisions. If you made 3% on your money you would appear to be doing ok versus the governments cracked inflation gage, but you would have been on the losing side of life in most areas where housing costs have doubled or more and health insurance has skyrocketed.

Sector Watch: Most Sectors Remain Solidly In The Bull's Camp
3 days ago

What is affecting the market right now is tech and semiconductors. Tech was helping carry the market higher, but with the Republicans attacking the Internet and threatening regulations which goes against Trumps deregulation and core Republican anti-regulatory beliefs it is no wonder tech has faltered. As for semiconductors, the real issue is that to fuel growth in this area recently semiconductor players are stepping on each others feet to grow. The cycle does seem a bit tired and open warfare is inevitable. Until the losers are known, semis are liable to keep hurting until someone is flushed out.

For materials and energy, the continued worry over trade wars lingers. Thus this lack of upward momentum is 100% generated from Washington and nothing more. For those wondering what Republicans are doing, join the crowd. Their anti-free market, anti-free trade, pro-tech regulatory message is confusing Republicans and seems to be implying they need someone to check their worst inclinations as well. It is strange that Democrats are the only viable counter to their recent actions. I guess in Washington often gridlock is better than people pressing absurd ideas onto the market.

We need a party that believes in capitalism. Apparently the Republican party has also given up on this and may be why they will loose in the next election. A vote for Democrats seems more a vote for stability and do nothing in Washington than anything else at this point in time.

China To Take Over Israel's Largest Port, Could Threaten US Naval Operations
3 days ago

It is interesting Israel is getting so close to China without insisting on human right's especially religious freedoms. This is an issue that China needs to deal with if it wants to play a bigger role in the world.

America Seizes Oil Throne
3 days ago

Sadly it came at a time when oil prices were low and many producers are not in good shape. The US should use its oil when it becomes too expensive elsewhere for US consumers and to keep our economy strong. That said, the production of gas is great, especially since Asia is using it to make LNG cars that are better than gas cars in emissions and some countries are using it to replace coal.

The fact is, the US should be moving towards LNG fueled transportation as well and leaving oil for more complex synthesis such as jet fuel, plastics, chemicals, and drugs.

In this article: AMLP, PAGP
How The Emerging Markets Troubles Are Transmitted Around The World
5 days ago

The issue is it's good to look at emerging markets because they are the first to respond to global downturns. Thus, I think it's hard to determine how much emerging market problems affect the rest of the world because the rest of the world usually is a big factor for the emerging market meltdowns in the first place.

US Ports Fear Tariffs Could Collapse Ship Traffic And Reduce Jobs
10 days ago

So far that hasn't happened that much. Rather, our deficit is getting bigger and our own companies are hurting because of them. More of the same seems ridiculous. Someone needs to teach someone about economic fact and stop this madness because the biggest thing happening is emptying ports overseas as countries turn their nose up at the stink in Washington causing a trade war.

Weekly Market Outlook – Playing With Fire
10 days ago

Threatening regulations on an industry dominated by the US and driving economic growth is justified reason to bring the market down. The Internet hearings in Washington by Republicans of all parties is repulsive and a joke. I respect Google for being smart enough not to waste time and money partaking of the poisoned chalice.

In this article: SPX, VIX
Bull Trap Or Bullsh*t
10 days ago

This downturn is news driven, as it why is Washington butting into things it shouldn't and sadly it's Republicans messing with it threatening Internet regulation, overseas Tariffs, Washington drama, and trade wars. It makes you wonder if the Republicans magically became partial Bernie sanders socialists?

In this article: HYG, QQQ, DIA, IWM, SPY
Mark Your Calendar, The ‘Era Of Helicopter Money’ In Japan Has A Date
11 days ago

Eventually Japan's deficit will get so large it can't pay much interest if any on its monumental deficits if it hasn't reached that point already. This is the real ugly risk of QE and negative rates. It leads to terrible things due to uncontrolled behavior.

The Impact Of The U.S.- China Trade War On Their Trade To Date
11 days ago

Sadly this is just a politicized tax on consumption imposed on US citizens. Worse it creates a very bad impression on countries tariffs are imposed which is now cutting into US goods consumption. One can not blame China or others for the US creating a bad name for itself.

The other issue is although China has been trying to support its currency, its currency is being driven down by the trade war which negates much of the tariff's effect. This is not a result of currency wars, but the predictable result of creating a trade war with a country going through economically stressful times already. Sadly, the low priced leaders today are not Chinese manufacturers but Southeast Asian nations which even China can't compete with.

1 to 10 of 1541 comments
1 2 3 ... 155

STOCKS I FOLLOW

GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Google)
SKM SK Telecom Co. Ltd.

TWEETS

LATEST ACTIVITY

Moon Kil Woong Commented on 10 Years And 10 Lessons From The Financial Crisis:

Good list. I'd add:

11. Worry about the big things but don't expect catastrophe tomorrow because of them. Downturns require catalysts.

Equally important is the list of things we haven't learned:

1. TBTF ban...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on Sector Watch: Most Sectors Remain Solidly In The Bull's Camp:

What is affecting the market right now is tech and semiconductors. Tech was helping carry the market higher, but with the Republicans attacking the Internet and threatening regulations which goes against...

more
Moon Kil Woong Commented on China To Take Over Israel's Largest Port, Could Threaten US Naval Operations:

It is interesting Israel is getting so close to China without insisting on human right's especially religious freedoms. This is an issue that China needs to deal with if it wants to play a bigger role in...

more
All Posts

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts

Work Experience

Education

San Jose State University
MPA
Public Administration

Publications