Markets Flat Line As Volume Fades In Dog Days

In the midst of the final days of a long, hot, relentlessly tumultuous summer, a quiet calm seems to have settled over most major markets. Here in the United States, volumes have dried up to less than half of their typical totals.  

Each day, indexes are settling up or down maybe fifty points one way or another. For lovers of action, it is like watching paint dry, only the paint is a dull, drab, listless gray.  Downright boring, if I may so myself.  

Alas, excitement lovers can point to Fed head Janet Yellen’s upcoming speech next week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, titled, appropriately, ‘The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit,’ as a potential catalyst to stir things up a bit. Don’t want to bore you with the instruments of the trade (margin requirements, changes in repo rates, a modification in reserve levels to name a few), so let's just say Mrs. Yellen probably should stick with buying fixed income securities, but in a big, big, big way.  As we well know, central banks all over the world seem to have learned this strategy, to say the least.  Anyway, as a divided Federal Reserve board continually announces their disagreement on when interest rates should go up, investors are now betting September is back on the table. Again. Wait. Maybe not. 

As the reporting season winds down, retailers were in focus this week with heavyweights Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT) reporting vastly different results.  Investors did not like the numbers from the big red dot as grocery and lower sales in electronics, primarily from Apple products, hurt its efforts.  Conversely, the behemoth from Bentonville impressed the street with same store sales which were up 1.6% year over year.  

Gap (GPS) weighed in with adjusted earnings which were better than expected but not so on the bottom line.  It was hurt by the closing of under performing locations and lighter traffic. Estee Lauder (EL) told us all was not lovely because of softness in the department store area, clearly hurt by Macy’s continuing challenges.  The one common denominator among all of these companies is, ta da, Amazon, Amazon, Amazon, Amazon (AMZN).  Yes, each have their own execution and strategic issues to be sure, but Bezos crew in Seattle just keeps the pressure on in the retail area.

In health care, the big news came from Aetna pulling out of the statewide exchanges offered by the Affordable Care Act, now more aptly turning into the unaffordable care act, or even more concerning for the Obama Administration, the potential crumbling of all of these health care offerings.

I would just note Aetna joined United Health Group and Humana by withdrawing as it seems these health care giants cannot make any money from these exchanges, as they are currently structured.  In addition, and not to be underestimated, is the concern being shown by the Justice Department with the decline of the Aetna Humana merger.  

In technology, Google (GOOGL) made news by declaring they are changing strategy in their attempts to offer ultra fast high speed fiber into the home in twelve more cities.  It appears the cost of installing the fiber is, uh, a little much.  Shock to the cable guys, right?  

In the oil patch, there is talk of a meeting between Russia and the Saudis to try and come up with an agreement to lower production and firm up prices.  I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one, but oil prices did go up a bit so it seems there at least a few believers.  

In other news, the Justice Department confirmed the Federal Government will stop using private contractors for prisons. The stocks of the private companies which provide and run these buildings were thrashed, down nearly 40% that day. In the case of the main contractor, federal revenues only account for less than 10% of the companies' total, which shows you the theme of sell first and ask questions later still remains prevalent in this market when there is a sniff of trouble.

Finally, consistent with the theme of incarceration, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama declined to head down to Louisiana while, lo and behold, delightful Donald actually made the right move and headed down to the Big Easy to show concern for the citizens of the area as they deal with the problems from flooding.  

Donald has his own problems, as seen by the turnover of those in charge of his campaign. With the debates rapidly approaching and the sands of time slowly leaving the long quest for the presidency, whether Donald is a lion or a lamb remains the key question. We will know soon enough.

 

Disclosure: Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the blog post. Investing in stocks can ...

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