Market Briefing For Monday, Jan. 22

Scandalous revelations threaten to cause an upheaval not only in what happens to the Mueller investigation but more prominent figures in what's called a 'DC Swamp'; 'if' allegations emanating from several Congressmen prove to be anywhere near accurate. 

 While a release of the 'Top Secret' document wouldn't change the President's pomposity (might even enhance it);there is little doubt that it would validate a lot of the policy goals he's had as well as accusations that most media have called outrageous and so on. 

We don't know, but think you need to know this is out there (you may know about it already; but many don't or wish to ignore the possibility that what's happened was indeed collusion but not as alleged). This has not merely a political aspect, but it would indirectly validate Trump to a degree perhaps triggering another upward spike in the market. 

Any such upward spike would likely be short-term in nature at these levels, but be aware of the possibility. So this could have an effect next week. In sum, little has changed technically in the market. Political overtones are however potentially explosive and can make big news and even move the financial markets at least temporarily. 

Daily action expects a knee-jerk reaction to the Congressional passage (or not) of an interim (or longer) stop-gap spending Bill or Resolution. As of Friday evening there were still a few hours pending since a 'constructive' dialogue between 'Donald & Chuck'. 
 

The charts tell the story of a market that's got participation but generally is sustained by rotation rather than the focus on a handful of stocks. And for that matter the handful of recent leaders are indeed priced for perfection. 
 

The start of Monday will be obvious depending on the Vote. Regardless we retain a market sustained by fund flows and momentum which additionally presupposes that Tuesday's outside-down-day was irrelevant. We thought it was a given that they'd rebound (they did even more);but caution that as complacency takes over again, that's when one has to become a bit wary, or simply stay long and wary, as are we. 
 

We have not and are not standing in the way of this market 'freight train'; and called this a Monster Bull in the making 'if' and since Trump won. That however is not going to deny more volatility this year periodically; and that too is a takeaway from the week just past. 
 

Overall this is simply an extension of the same market pattern, with greater risk as it gets into these higher areas.   

(The morning video delves into the topic first mentioned above. Clearly the market hopes for a stop-gap spending measure.)

Weekend (final) MarketCast

10:30 am (intraday & POLITICS) MarketCast   

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Moon Kil Woong 6 years ago Contributor's comment

Even if a deal is put in place there is little hope for any resolution to make any consensus deal for a budget. If I recall directly the only reason a budget problem didn't occur sooner was a Donald deal to help the dreamers out which materialized to be nothing. I doubt the Democrats will take his word again and the Republicans are in no mood to give in since Trump has little control of his party either.

The good news is that the shutdown's effect can be mitigated for some time if the President chooses to do so.