Oil Will Be Over $100 A Barrel In 3 Years
Here is the Oil Equation: Existing Supply minus Shale Destruction, minus Cap Ex Reductions, minus Depletion Rates Globally, minus Demand Growth versus Iranian New Supply. Oil will be above $45 a barrel by April, above $70 a barrel in fifteen months, and over $100 a barrel in 3 years once you start plugging in the numbers in the aforementioned oil equation. The scary thing is we now know what Russia, Saudi Arabia and OPEC have in terms of Spare Capacity - and it is much less than we thought five years ago.
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Given there is a glut and tons more global supply ready to turn on I don't buy it. The whole problem is oil is welling up all over the world including even in India. This oil price rise will only encourage more production and is based on overly optimistic short term middle east cuts and a slightly softer dollar that will reverse if the Fed raises interest rates even 0.25%. That's how bad off oil is right now.