Canada’s Employment Surge Continued Into March
The Canadian economy generated 32,000 new jobs in March, a healthy monthly increase particularly since virtually all the new jobs were full-time jobs. As well, in March the labor force participation rate remained stable and the unemployment rate continued to stay at its record low of 5.8%.
Even though Canadian employment has been on an upward trajectory since the second-half of 2016, nonetheless total employment shrunk in the first quarter of 2018 (-40,000 or -0.2%), though this was mainly because of the huge job loss in January.
On a year-over-year basis, total employment increased by 296,000 (+1.6%) in March, with the full-time work expanding by 335,000 new jobs (+2.3%).
As is often the case with monthly employment figures, full-time and part-time jobs went in opposite direction in March. In March, there were 68,300 new full-time jobs, while the number of part-time jobs decreased by 35,900.
The Labour Force Survey also indicated that that two largest Canadian provinces, Ontario and Quebec, each added more than 10,000 new employees in March. Ontario, which is heading into a provincial election, recorded a 5.5% unemployment rate in March, its lowest level since 2001.
Finally, it must be stressed that the Canadian Labour Force survey monthly data usually has a large standard error.
For example, the standard error for paid employment in March was plus or minus 36,000 employees, three times larger than the actual 12,500 jobs recorded for this category.
The standard error for total employment in March was plus or minus 29,500 jobs. This explains why economists are more comfortable tracking employment changes over three-month average, over a full year.
Disclosure: None.
What do you think is driving this employment surge?
Sorry for tardy response. A weak Cdn currency, currently close to 75 cents US, the very strong US economy, and the revival of commodity prices, particularly oil.
Thanks for the reply, Arthur!