Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

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E Japan’s Economy Contracted In Q3, Growth Is Slowing
Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, stumbled in the third quarter and registered its second quarterly economic contraction this year. The Q3 contraction was mainly due to a decline in private consumer spending and business investment.
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E China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War
Front loading in advance of tariffs explains much of China’s recent export surge.
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E While The US Economy Was Extremely Strong In Q3, Slower Growth Is In The Offing
America’s real GDP increased at a 3.5% annual rate in Q3 and at a 4.2% pace in the second quarter.
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E Canada’s Economic Outlook Has Suddenly Become Much Gloomier
Canada’s Q3 economic slowdown reflected a moderation in the annualized growth of real consumer spending to 1.2% as well as a huge 9.8% annual drop in business fixed investment.
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E Are US Interest Rates Close To A Peak? Housing Is Being Hurt By The Fed Rate Hikes
The Fed seems to be using its estimate of a neutral or natural federal funds rate as a potential policy target.
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E Slower Growth Is Coming. Will There Be A Soft Landing In 2019 Or 2020?
The global economy is slowing. There is strong evidence to support this assertion. Moreover, the synchronization of growth, which was so evident between 2014 and 2017, is also fading.
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China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War
3 days ago

Yep

Your comment is right on.

China is trying to diversify its own imports. Imports from Asian countries grew faster than imports from the US.

Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences
1 month ago

I found your article to be very insightful. As an aside, I have also long thought that the division between what is manufacturing and what can be classified as services to be very blurry. All the best.

Canada Had A Jobs Rebound In June, But Short-Term Outlook Less Encouraging
4 months ago

thanks for your comment. where are you located?

U.S. Housing Starts Have Rebounded, But Tariffs Are A Deterrent To New Construction
4 months ago

Your comment is interesting. A sudden halt of Chinese investments in real estate around the world would have a negative impact in the US, even a bigger negative for Canada. But, don't under estimate the importance of tarif induced costs on housing construction.

The Euro Area’s Economy Has Been Re-Energized
7 months ago

The political and economic risks are real.

Brexit and the impact on euro mkt, Trump and his antics, worries about foreign trade barriers, the swing to the right in some countries, and concerns over when the ECB starts to withdraw monetary support. My own sense is that the euro will hold together.

The Euro Area’s Economy Has Been Re-Energized
7 months ago

YIkes. This is a hard question to answer.

From my experience, strong economic growth is rarely a good predictor for the market. To use an economist cop out, strong growth is likely a necessary condition, but not on its own a sufficient condition for strong equity markets.

Canada’s Employment Surge Continued Into March
7 months ago

Sorry for tardy response. A weak Cdn currency, currently close to 75 cents US, the very strong US economy, and the revival of commodity prices, particularly oil.

The Trump Republicans Have Completely Abandoned Fiscal Responsibility
8 months ago

those are many interesting ideas for saving money. However, my priorities would be different.

The tax cuts were very unbalanced, favoring the wealthy. I think that this is wrong, even though the American public seems almost unaware of this.

A Strong Currency Has Lowered Inflation In The Euro Area
1 year ago

I agree. Of course, China is selling consumer goods all over the world, and in this way, is lowering prices (and inflation) virtually everywhere.

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Arthur Donner Commented on China’s Exports Have Recently Soared Because Of The Tariff War:

Yep

Your comment is right on.

China is trying to diversify its own imports. Imports from Asian countries grew faster than imports from the US.

Arthur Donner Commented on Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences:

I found your article to be very insightful. As an aside, I have also long thought that the division between what is manufacturing and what can be classified as services to be very blurry. All the best.

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