Economic Consultant

Arthur Donner is a Toronto-based economic consultant with a lively interest and involvement in economic policy issues. Arthur has the ability to make complicated economic issues understandable to widely different audiences. Consequently, his career has moved between universities, governments and ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E The Projected Path For The Fed’s Interest Rate
While the Fed’s mandate emphasizes both price stability and the job market, markets are most worried about the inflation risk. When it comes to assessing inflation developments, the Fed relies on the core PCE price index.
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E Trump’s Tariff War With China May Have Some Unexpected Consequences
The American economy is roaring, the stock market has, up till recently, been very strong, and thus far protectionism has had only a negligible impact on growth.
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E Emerging Market Currencies Have Weakened Because Of Dangerously High External Debts And A Strong US Dollar
Emerging market currencies have not had it easy this year, particularly since the US dollar has been so strong.
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E Although Monetary Policy Is Still Quite Easy, Central Banks Are Tightening
The two largest central banks are easing back on their monetary stimulus which was so necessary to battle the multiple crises which emerged after the 2008 financial meltdown.
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E The Global Outlook Dims, The US-China Trade Rift Makes Matters Worse
World economic growth has been a bit softer this year than originally expected, even though the US economy has performed very strongly.
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E American Consumers Are Optimistic, But Are Also Experiencing Some Sticker Shock
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey for August showed a decline in the index to 96.2 from 97.9 in July.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Canada Had A Jobs Rebound In June, But Short-Term Outlook Less Encouraging
2 months ago

thanks for your comment. where are you located?

U.S. Housing Starts Have Rebounded, But Tariffs Are A Deterrent To New Construction
2 months ago

Your comment is interesting. A sudden halt of Chinese investments in real estate around the world would have a negative impact in the US, even a bigger negative for Canada. But, don't under estimate the importance of tarif induced costs on housing construction.

The Euro Area’s Economy Has Been Re-Energized
5 months ago

The political and economic risks are real.

Brexit and the impact on euro mkt, Trump and his antics, worries about foreign trade barriers, the swing to the right in some countries, and concerns over when the ECB starts to withdraw monetary support. My own sense is that the euro will hold together.

The Euro Area’s Economy Has Been Re-Energized
5 months ago

YIkes. This is a hard question to answer.

From my experience, strong economic growth is rarely a good predictor for the market. To use an economist cop out, strong growth is likely a necessary condition, but not on its own a sufficient condition for strong equity markets.

Canada’s Employment Surge Continued Into March
5 months ago

Sorry for tardy response. A weak Cdn currency, currently close to 75 cents US, the very strong US economy, and the revival of commodity prices, particularly oil.

The Trump Republicans Have Completely Abandoned Fiscal Responsibility
6 months ago

those are many interesting ideas for saving money. However, my priorities would be different.

The tax cuts were very unbalanced, favoring the wealthy. I think that this is wrong, even though the American public seems almost unaware of this.

A Strong Currency Has Lowered Inflation In The Euro Area
1 year ago

I agree. Of course, China is selling consumer goods all over the world, and in this way, is lowering prices (and inflation) virtually everywhere.

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