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Emerging Markets Roundup
There was a lot of optimism for emerging markets equities heading into 2023. The reopening of the Chinese economy was expected to bolster the country’s equities and the EM asset class. Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data stymied this thesis.
Growth Stocks Are Less Expensive Than Traditional Measures Imply
This year’s rise in US equities has many questioning whether prices have overshot fundamentals. The concern is amplified for mega-cap growth stocks. Apart from the case of Nvidia, the impact of AI on earnings growth will be felt in the years to come.
China’s Reluctance Toward Stimulus-Driven Growth
China continues to manage growth through supply-side reforms for two main reasons, one reason being that Chinese leadership does not appear to think the US model of monetary stimulus would work well in China.
What’s Driving Returns In Emerging Markets?
Despite the uncertain outlook for China, we think these three factors can continue to shine in the coming months.
Fed Watch: Is That All You Got?
As was widely expected, the Fed kept the Fed Funds Rate target unchanged at the September FOMC meeting.
Blending Strategies For Japan Positioning
Japanese large caps have been a bright spot for value investors over the last three years, particularly when implemented with a currency hedge, as the yen weakened considerably.
U.S. Economy: Receding Recession Expectations
One of the more unexpected developments this year is that a recession has yet to rear its ugly head.
U.S. Labor Market Activity: Slowing, Not Weakening
While the Fed has emphasized that future policy decisions—i.e., the potential for another rate hike—would be based on the “totality” of upcoming economic data, make no mistake, employment reports go to the front of the line.
Post-Nvidia’s Q2 2023 Earnings — Will The ‘AI Hype’ Keep Driving Equity Performance?
The company’s data center business grew revenues by more than three times in six months, hitting $10.323 billion and a year-over-year growth figure of more than 171%.
Five Alive
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech has now come and gone, so the next big thing on the Fed calendar is the September 20 FOMC meeting. As expected, Powell didn’t offer up any groundbreaking headlines last week.
What Cisco Teaches Us For Today’s AI Darling, Nvidia
Nvidia, initially renowned for its prowess in graphics processing units (GPUs), has positioned itself at the forefront of another digital paradigm shift: artificial intelligence (AI).
The Long-Term Winning High-Multiple Stocks
Nvidia became the highest price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stock in the S&P 500 at the end of March 2023 and up until mid-August 2023, returned a total of 52.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 8.7%.
Budget Deficits Come Into Focus
While the recent run-up in UST yields had its genesis in the macro side of the equation, it appears that the secondary push higher may very well have been due to the aforementioned increase in auction sizes.
Budget Deficits Take Center Stage
One of the more notable deficit-related headlines last week was that Fitch Ratings agency downgraded the U.S. government’s long-term rating a notch to AA+ from AAA.
Still Want To Be Late To The Duration Party?
With the Fed in higher for longer mode, a reasonable outcome for the 10-Year could be to remain in a range-bound pattern, with the yield skewed toward the upper limit. Another run at the high point of 4.25% should not be ruled out either.
Fed Watch: The Final Countdown
For all intents and purposes, the pause at the June FOMC meeting just turned into a skip, as the Fed came back with another quarter-point rate hike at the July policy convocation.
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