Michael Ashton | TalkMarkets | Page 4
Inflation Products and Markets Expert
Contributor's Links: E-piphany What’s Wrong With Money?
On Bloomberg TV his audiences know him as the “Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer, having traded the very first interbank US inflation swaps and having been the sole market maker for the CPI futures contract. He is considered as the ...more

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High Prices Don’t Cure High Prices
This was an interesting week, one in which equity investors finally and abruptly got the message that high inflation is bad for the market.
What Happens Next?
A valuable strategist/forecaster is not the one who can tell you what they think the actual future will be. The most valuable strategists have two strong skills.
Tight Spreads’ Cost: Orderly Markets
The Fed increasingly sounds like they want to be aggressive with rates. That’s half the battle, though on the more important half (the balance sheet reduction) they don’t yet have a plan.
Anatomy Of A Monetary Policy Error
The skyrocketing energy prices trigger another mistaken belief at the Fed, which enhances the desire to tighten even slower/later.
Financial Buyers Aren’t To Blame For High Commodities Prices
Commodities curves are in backwardation at levels we haven’t seen in a long time.
The Re-Onshoring Trend And The Long-Term Impact On Core Goods
A look at the re-onshoring trend in manufacturing, and the significance of this for inflation going forward.
A More Optimistic Outlook For Gold? Or Not?
Something interesting has been happening in gold over the last decade.
The Coming Peak In Inflation (And Why You Should Hold Off On The Party)
There are a lot of reasons that the Fed is not going to be hawkish in any traditional sense.
Summary Of My Post-CPI Tweets (November 2021)
Amazingly, economists’ predictions for today’s figure would take headline inflation to 6.8% and core to 4.9%. The month/month forecast for CORE is actually 0.5% – an amazing testimony in itself.
A Guess At The Value Of Long Inflation Tails
Viewing the forward inflation curve as a forecast of expected inflation is biased in a particular way. Or, at least, it should be.
You Have Not Missed It
Recently, 10-year inflation breakevens reached 2.78% – matching the all-time highs (since TIPS were issued in 1997) from 2005.
Shortages Are Unmeasured Inflation
Recently, I’ve been saying occasionally that “shortages are unmeasured inflation.” People were taking this to mean “inflation is bad, shortages are bad, therefore they’re kind of the same.” But what I mean is actually more profound than that.
When Over-Ordering Is More Than Hoarding
It is a lament I have heard recently from the manufacturing/supply side, but also an excuse I’ve heard from some of the economist ranks for why “this supply chain issue will all get sorted out; people are just going crazy.”
Are Home Prices Too High?
In 2006, the breakeven values were similar but home prices were very high, which means that you were better off taking the bird-in-the-hand of inflation bonds and not buying a home at those high prices. But today, the question is much more mixed.
The Political Temptation Posed By “Price Gouging”
Developed economies are still mostly free markets, in that buyers and sellers are given wide latitude to negotiate on price and quantity.
Average Inflation Or Price-Level Targeting: Where Are We Now?
One of the reasons the Fed has been slower than usual to respond to the upswing in inflation is that the FOMC cleverly changed its modus operandi a couple of years ago to focus on “average inflation targeting”. or AIT.
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