Back From The Moon
Friday, January 8, 2016 2:26 PM EDT
Economics is too important to be left to economists, apparently.
All Contributions
Surprising Surprises
Wednesday, December 23, 2015 9:36 AM EDT
Yesterday, I observed that the data has generally been weakening, and while some commentators are optimistic on the outlook for 2016 I am not one of them.
Homes For The Holidays
Tuesday, December 22, 2015 4:35 PM EDT
November Existing Home Sales was reported at 4.76mm units (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate), which was considerably below expectations for a nearly-unchanged 5.35mm.
A Good Time To Remember
Wednesday, December 16, 2015 5:24 PM EDT
It is a good time to remember that there are a whole lot of people in the market today, many of them managing many millions or even billions of dollars, who have never seen a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. The last one began in 2004.
Subtle Clues: Not Everyone Thinks The Fed Will Win
Wednesday, December 9, 2015 1:14 AM EDT
Everyone professes to believe that the Fed is ahead of the curve and will surely squash inflation. But that isn’t how they’re positioning.
Swimming Naked - But What Happens When The Tide Goes Out?
Thursday, December 3, 2015 1:13 PM EDT
Yesterday, Janet Yellen helped cement the view that the Fed is going to raise rates at the next FOMC meeting with her speech to the Washington Economic Club.
"Sometimes I Just Sits" - Thinking About CPI
Wednesday, December 2, 2015 5:33 PM EDT
I do think that the Fed should be withdrawing the emergency liquidity that it provided, even though the best time to do that was several years ago.
Median Inflation Vs Mediocre Growth
Thursday, November 5, 2015 4:19 PM EDT
If the FOMC had a balanced mandate (inflation and employment equal) then they would probably be at a neutral rate right now, so that would argue for tightening.
Looks Like A Hag To Me
Tuesday, November 3, 2015 11:00 PM EDT
“The economy is not collapsing” is not a strong argument for why we’ve added 10% since the beginning of October.
In this article: AMZN
Anchors Aweigh!
Monday, October 19, 2015 5:11 PM EDT
I have long found it interesting that with as much as the Fed relies on the notion that inflation expectations are anchored, they have no way to accurately measure inflation expectations.
Post-CPI Short Takes
Thursday, October 15, 2015 4:15 PM EDT
Inflation is headed higher. How much higher, and how quickly, depends on several factors such as how quickly the Fed raises rates.
Walmart Traffic May Be Down But Wall Street Traffic Is Up
Wednesday, October 14, 2015 6:36 PM EDT
Walmart didn’t have its best day today. Today’s data will tweak the Q3 forecasts a bit lower, but isn’t anything to be upset about. Except, that is, for the fact that Walmart is bleeding.
In this article: WMT
The New Fed Operating Framework Explained With Cheese
Thursday, October 8, 2015 9:55 AM EDT
There is a tremendous surplus of reserves above what banks are required to hold or desire to hold. With free markets, this will result in a Fed funds interest rate of zero, or even lower under some circumstances,with a substantial remaining surplus.
Recession Won’t Be Fun… But Better Than Last Time
Tuesday, October 6, 2015 2:32 PM EDT
Investors fearing recession should shift equity allocations (to the extent some equity allocation is retained) to less-levered businesses.
In this article: GES
The Sky Is Not Falling…Yet
Monday, October 5, 2015 4:38 PM EDT
The Employment Report on Friday was bad – but it wasn’t the unmitigated disaster that the consensus seems to have spun it into. It is true that there were no bright spots.
Will They Could They Should They?
Monday, September 28, 2015 9:34 PM EDT
So now we have all noticed that the Fed eschewed tightening a week and a half ago, and we have digested all of the analysis of the “negative dots” which indicate some member of the Fed projected not just unchanged rates but actually negative rates.
