James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 5
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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US Growth Slowdown Expected For Thursday’s Q4 GDP Report
Thursday’s GDP report is expected to show that growth was moderate in the final three months of 2023 – news that will support the ‘soft landing’ view that’s been popular with some economists.
Looking For The ‘Missing Link’ In Failed Recession Models
The housing-construction-worker factor, if correct, looks set to support the soft-landing forecasts in the near term.
US Stock Market At Record While Drawdowns Prevail Elsewhere
Wall Street celebrated on Friday when the S&P 500 Index, the most popular benchmark of US shares, closed at a record high for the first time in more than two years.
Moderate Growth Is Still The Estimate For US Q4 GDP
On Jan. 25, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is projected to report that growth slowed to a 1.9% gain (seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to the revised median nowcast from Friday. That’s a sharp slowdown from Q3’s strong 4.9% increase.
Healthcare Sector Is Off To A Strong, Market-Leading Start In 2024
After a modest loss in 2023, shares in the healthcare sector are enjoying a market-leading rebound so far in the new year.
Does NY Fed Manufacturing Index’s Plunge Signal US Recession?
The sharp drop in the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business-conditions index in January triggered a wave of warnings.
Commodities Are Still An Intriguing Contrarian Trade
Reviewing 2023 results for the major asset classes reflects a long list of winners, with one conspicuous downside outlier commodities.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Friday, Jan. 12
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and a lesser “fair-value” estimate.
Managing Expectations For December’s Consumer Inflation Report
A lot is riding on tomorrow’s US consumer inflation report for December for markets, which are pricing in relatively upbeat news.
Still Waiting For A Clear Risk-Off Signal At 2024’s Start
There’s no shortage of reasons to be cautious about the near-term outlook for markets, but reviewing trend behavior via several sets of ETF pairs continues to reflect a positive trend for risk assets.
Desperately Seeking Yield: Monday, Jan. 8
The runup in yields for most of the major asset classes has peaked. That’s hardly surprising, given the slide in government bond yields, but it’s a reminder that the low-hanging fruit of relatively rich yields is increasingly in the rear-view mirror.
Macro Briefing: Monday, Jan. 8, 2024
Here is a brief overview of various economic factors that may play a part in the day's trading.
U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Expected To Support Soft Landing Outlook
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is projected to report that growth slowed to a 1.6% gain (seasonally adjusted annual rate), which is the current median nowcast.
Markets And Fed Minutes See Path For Rate Cuts In 2024
Uncertainty is as thick as ever for diving into what awaits in the year ahead, but there’s still a growing consensus building that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - Wednesday, Jan. 3
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index ticked lower in December, easing to an expected 6.7% annualized total return.
Major Asset Classes December 2023 Performance Review
Real estate securities rebounded sharply in December, leading the broad-based gains for the major asset classes in the final month of 2023, based on a set of ETFs.
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