AG Thorson | TalkMarkets | Page 13
Registered CMT, Technical Analyst
Contributor's Links: GoldPredict
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. His regularly scheduled reports are released every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday. For more information, please visit GoldPredict.com.

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HUI:Gold Ratio
The HUI:Gold ratio closed above the 50-day EMA and broke the downtrend, supporting a potential bottom. Breaking above the 0.174 high established in November will confirm a low in miners.
Precious Metals Sinking Further Into A Major 8-Year Cycle Low
The probabilities favor precious metals sinking further into a major 8-year cycle low. Traditional cycle timing suggests a bottom by the first quarter of 2017, most likely in February.
Gold And Silver Could Drop To New Lows
Silver closed below $15.80 on a weekly basis and selling could increase if daily prices close below $15.68. The optimal timing window for an 8-year cycle low is in Feb. 2017. Selling should expand in coming weeks if gold and silver drop to new lows.
We Could See Silver Prices Rally For A Few Days
Silver reached $15.68 and then reversed making a bullish hammer. We could see prices rally for a few days; I’d like to see silver remain below $16.80. Prices dropping below today’s low ($15.68) could lead to a heavy selling.
Gold Missed Its Opportunity To Rally After The Fed Meeting
Gold missed its opportunity to rally after the Fed meeting and the similarities the to 2015 December low are now invalid. Silver broke below its November low, and the next line of support is the $15.83 June low.
Gold Prices Are Overdue For A Bounce, But Prices Continue To Trade Lower
Miners broke sharply and should continue to drop for a few more trading days before attempting a rally.
Fed Raised Rates - Where Is Gold Heading?
The Fed raised as expected and forecasted three rate hike in 2017. For the record, they forecasted 4-hikes in 2016 and only increased once. Gold traded down to $1,150 after the announcement and is bouncing but not convincingly.
Gold Prices Have Been Oversold For Weeks, And A Move Higher Is Overdue
The market is giving a 95% probability of a rate increase to between 50 and 75 basis points. A rate hike has been baked in the cake for several weeks now.
The Odds Favor A Potential Bottom For Gold Prices Next Week
The charts have been difficult to decipher since October, to put it mildly. Nevertheless, a pattern has emerged supporting a potential low for gold prices next week.
Will The Euro Drag Gold Even Lower
The ECB announced that they would continue asset purchases through the end of the year and reduce the amount of stimulus from 80B to 60B next April. The EURO spiked higher on the news and then immediately sold off; the US Dollar strengthened.
XAU Mining Index Update
Since August the XAU has displayed the following behavior. A sharp drop followed by a 14-day to 16-day correction that retraces between 50% and 61.8% of the previous decline.
Hot Money Has Moved Away From The Gold Sector And Jumped Into Stocks
Silver and Miners have remained above their November lows as gold prices continue to edge lower. This divergence could be a bullish sign if it continues to carry.
Next Week Is Critical For Metals And Miners
Gold prices have been at a major inflection point for several weeks. There are two ways to interpret the current cycle count, one bullish and one temporarily bearish.
GDX Update - Friday, December 2
Prices are attempting to breakout above the 10-day EMA. If we close the day above $21.30, we will likely rally to retest the underside of the neckline at $22.50 next week.
Gold And Miners Are At An Inflection Point
I get the sense that gold and miners are at an inflection point. The miners are storing up energy for a sharp move and need to break recent resistance/support for a direction.
Will We See A Run To $1,230 Or Higher In Gold By This Time Next Week?
I haven’t been impressed with the price action off the recent lows in gold and silver. Prices rally, but eventually fade and drop back to near-term support. I see little conviction from buyers.
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