David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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The FOMC: Whatever (And However Long) It Takes
To no one’s surprise, the FOMC in its June meeting reaffirmed its 0–25 basis-point target for the federal funds rate.
Liquidity Impact On The Stock Market
All three major indices have continued their rallies in June: The S&P 500 is up 2.23%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.54%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 1.33%. There is one important factor we can’t ignore: Fed liquidity.
Inflation, Deflation, And Capacity Utilization – Part 2
The Dallas Fed has just released its April trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, which is touted as a measure of the overall movement of inflation based upon the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE).
S&P 500 After COVID-19
The S&P 500 Index is widely used as the benchmark for over $9.9 trillion in investments. After losing 35.4% in just a month, the index has rebounded 36.5% from its March 23rd bottom.
Inflation And Capacity Utilization
We know that excess demand serves to bid up prices, but is there reliable information on the supply side, in terms of capacity utilization, that also conveys meaningful information about price pressures as well?
Inflation/Deflation: What Do We Know Now?
The most recent CPI numbers show a decline of 0.8% for the month of April, triggering questions about both a possible deflation and where prices are likely to go in the future.
Risking An Investment War With China
Not having learned the costly lessons of a US-China trade war, the US government has now taken action that risks triggering an investment war with China that could have serious negative effects on the economies of both countries.
Comments On April Job Losses
An appalling employment report, reflecting massive dislocation and misery. An appalling employment report, reflecting massive dislocation and misery. And the real unemployment rate is actually almost 20%, 5 points higher than reported.
Black Swan And SKEW
SKEW has been unbelievably suppressed throughout the COVID-19 sell-off. It briefly touched the 140 level in mid-February and dropped to 110 afterwards.
Market Commentary: Short-Term Vs. Long-Term VIX
As the equity markets rally from the March 24th bottom gains steam, the volatility index has more than halved since its all-time high on March 16. VIX hit the 80 level for the first time during the financial crisis.
Bond Markets Through The Coronavirus
Join John Mousseau, president of Cumberland Advisors, as he walks you through the analysis of treasury, taxable, and municipal markets, federal monetary policy, and administration of fiscal policy.
The UK Economy Falls Off The Cliff; Brexit Negotiations Resume
The UK’s epidemic may have peaked, but the difficult battle is far from over. As of April 20, the number of cases in the UK was 120,067, compared with 145,742 cases in Germany.
Market Commentary: Narrow Banks
In a move overlooked due to the virus pandemic, on March 25, Judge Andrew L. Carter, Jr. dismissed a case filed by principals of The Narrow Bank against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. What is The Narrow Bank, and what are the issues it poses?
Understand Leveraged ETFs
Investors’ appetite for leveraged ETFs has been growing rapidly in the past decade. ETF providers upped the initial 2X leverage to 3X to satiate the market demand. But that growth coincided with the longest bull market in history.
Week In Review: March 30, 2020 – April 03, 2020
Cumberland Advisors offers this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios. Matt McAleer shares his thoughts on equities. Next, John Mousseau provides his analysis of the fixed income / bond market.
Why States Are Not Going To Default From The Coronavirus Fallout
In our opinion this is a short-term shock, although it will likely change some behaviors for the long term that will need to be monitored.
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