Callum Thomas | TalkMarkets | Page 34
Founder of Topdown Charts
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Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts - a chart driven research house covering global asset allocation and economics. Callum has a background in multi-asset investment strategy on the buyside and has built up strong research and analytical expertise for generating global macro driven ...more

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The Search For Yield Continues
The US 10-Year Government Bond yield looks like it is attempting to continue back on its downtrend after a brief breakout last year. The outlook for bond yields depends on the global economy.
The Big PE10 At The Small End Of Town
Instead of the S&P 500 I will examine the PE10 for the S&P 600.
Global Flash PMI Enters Into A Downtrend, What's Next?
The "global flash manufacturing PMI" dropped slightly in June, which continues the slight but noticeable downtrend that began from the peak in January this year.
Two Crude Oil Tactical Indicators To Keep Front Of Mind
Crude oil volatility has turned up after making post-crash lows, a pattern consistent with a fall in oil, and yet it has not spiked to the degree that it has in the past when the market is near a bottom.
Fed Policy Still In The "Sweet Spot" For Stocks
Until interest rates head materially higher and/or wage growth rolls over, this indicator will continue to signal low risk of a bear market as a result of traditional business cycle drivers.
Gold Price Outlook - Breakout Or Fakeout?
From a timing or tactical standpoint gold is at the upper end of its trend channel and there's been compression in gold implied volatility, so the shorter-term risks are elevated. Longer term we expect some mean reversion in real yields.
Know This Chart, Know The Fed
With the global economy tracking at a decent pace, there is a chart gives compelling justification for an ongoing and gradual normalization of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve.
To Understand Bank Stocks, Watch Property Prices
Property prices are still rising at a global level, so this presents tailwinds to growth, inflation, bond yields, and bank stocks.
New Zealand Property - Bubble?
What are the valuation metrics for the New Zealand share market or the NZX and is the New Zealand property market extremely overvalued?
Global Growth Outlook In Question
The global manufacturing PMI has peaked, bond yields have rolled over, and growth looks to be more divergent lately, so the global growth outlook has been called into question.
Institutional Investor Confidence Indicates Capitulation
The May reading of the global State Street Investor Confidence Index rose +5.1 pts to 102.5 which indicates institutional investors are feeling more confident.
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