Independent Analyst
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Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 31 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being ... more


Business Cycles And Inflation, Part II
The idea that consumer price inflation could actually rise despite the Fed beginning to take back QE cannot be dismissed out of hand. It not only remains an interesting, highly contrarian bet, it can also not be ruled out on theoretical grounds.
Business Cycles And Inflation
Contingent circumstances once again played an important role in the monetary and economic trends of the decade, but it is actually fairly easy to provide a logical explanation for this “inflationary recession” phenomenon.
Credit Spreads: The Coming Resurrection Of Polly
Although companies have amassed a lot of cash in aggregate, Moody’s pointed out the ratio of debt to cash has increased to levels that would indicate far higher expected corporate default rates and wider credit spreads than currently in evidence.
The 2017 Incrementum Gold Chart Book
The performance of major asset classes since gold bottomed in July of 1999. Despite the stock market outperforming gold handily since 2011, it is still lagging behind quite a bit over the past two decades.
The Donald Can’t Stop It
No doubt, with each passing day, the bull market moves closer to the next bear market. That’s when SPY portfolios will vaporize as the herd attempts to panic out of the market at precisely the same moment.
Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q3 2017
The quarterly Incrementum Advisory Board meeting was held last week. This time we were joined by special guest Luke Gromen of research house “Forest for the Trees”. We add a few remarks on a topic Luke Gromen is paying a great deal of attention to.


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