The Heisenberg Report | TalkMarkets | Page 92
Contributor's Links: The Heisenberg Report
Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts ...more

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Here’s What’s Driving Stocks To Record Highs
Over the last 3 weeks, US equities have rallied as fund positioning rose, the buyback bid resumed as companies exited blackout periods and US equity inflows returned over the last week.
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
The hardest thing to do in these markets is to justify the expense of maintaining hedges for your portfolio. A sad reality in a world that remains strewn with dangerous uncertainties.
Here Comes The Next “Tantrum”
The next tantrum Tactical considerations aside, history offers a compelling reason to be cautious on duration after recent market moves.
What Trade War? Market Is Mispricing The Swans (Again)
If you’re looking for a swan that could be classified as “grey” rather than “black,” that swan is a trade war with China.
Entire World Scrambles To Figure Out Why The Hell The Dollar Isn’t Stronger On Thursday
The dollar’s inability to sustain its gains and overcome technical resistances seems to be a sign that hard details over Trump’s fiscal-expansion plans are needed before the greenback stages a fresh, sustainable rally that will erase its 2017 drop.
Hedge Funds Might Have A Chance To Beat Benchmarks In 2017
Higher S&P 500 return dispersion will provide a larger opportunity set for fund managers to generate alpha in 2017.
Yuuuge Inflation Print Sends Dollar, March Odds, Yields Soaring
Going into the week it was all about two things: Yellen on Capitol Hill and Wednesday’s CPI print.
The Mystery Of The Short Short VIX Trade
The VIX is sitting at a 10 handle, plumbing last week’s post-“phenomenal” tax plan depths. And this of course comes on the heels of the 3rd and 5th calmest January in history for average VIX level and realized vol, respectively.
Janet Yellen Has A Valentine For You
Valentine’s Day is all about Janet Yellen on Capitol Hill. So who is in charge, you ask? I’ll give you two visual hints.
Yellen Yellin’ On Capitol Hill, Dollar Slumps, Toshiba Turmoils, China PPI, German GDP: Enough Said
If the dollar is any indication, the consensus seems to be Yellen will come across as overtly dovish or at least as “not hawkish”.
“Substantial Volatility” Ahead: One Bank’s Take On Yen-Sanity
Well it’s all about USDJPY on Monday. Of course if you’ve traded these markets professionally for any length of time, you know that it’s pretty much always about USDJPY.
Markets Relieved After Trump/Abe Meeting, Reflation Narrative Intact
Well, it was all aboard the reflation train right out of the gate in early Asian trading last night with USD/JPY jumping with 10Y yields and futs, following what counts as a “successful” high level summit these days.
Bad Chinese
You’re probably aware that China is in a tough spot. China has to maintain the illusion that the economy is growing near 6.5% while simultaneously curbing bond market speculation, real estate bubbles, and cutting deflationary excess capacity.
Chart Check Double Feature (Reflation Nation)
I’ve emphasized the importance of watching cross-asset correlations and positioning data as barometers of the “Trump trade.” These correlations and CTFC positioning are a running referendum if the market is still buying the reflation narrative.
Here Are The “Single Most Important Questions” For America’s Banks
Now that Donald Trump and the long-ish list of Goldman bankers in his inner circle are set to roll back Dodd-Frank in a concerted and ongoing effort to “make Wall Street great again,” America’s banks can finally get back to business as usual.
Record Treasury Short Trimmed For Fourth Straight Week, Trump Weighs On Dollar Longs
As you’re probably aware – and if you’re not, you should make yourself aware – watching CFTC positioning data is a good way to monitor the market’s evolving assessment of the reflation narrative.
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