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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. Please familiarize yourself with our full more

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Inflation Expectations Are Falling
Small business sentiment was almost unchanged as it fell 0.2 to 99.6 in May.
Rates Aren’t Too Low
The JOLTS report continued the recent uptrend in job openings. They spiked to a record high of 9.286 million from 8.288 million which destroyed estimates for 8.045 million and the highest estimate which was 8.2 million.
Massive Land Grab
The economy is headed back to normal; we just don’t know what normal looks like.
Disappointing May Labor Report
The May labor report modestly missed estimates which was different from the huge disappointment in April. This report actually had a bigger impact on the 10-year yield than the last one.
Did Millennials Take A Step Back?
At age 40 each subsequent generation has had a similar income, an increase in debt, and a decline in wealth. The increase in debt for millennials is likely due to student loans.
Long Term Projections Shift Sharply
US GDP growth expectations have increased since last year unlike other countries especially the ones that botched the vaccine rollout.
Massive Supply Chain Issues
The May PMI report was one to remember because of the extreme supply chain issues.
Which Industries Have Room To Grow?
Eating out has already fully recovered to above where it was prior to the pandemic. There is likely some pent-up demand that will temporarily keep spending above prior levels this summer.
Rent Inflation Set To Soar This Summer
The core PCE prices index recovered all its pandemic losses. The Fed is likely going to be more hawkish in its remaining meetings this year, but we believe rate hikes aren’t likely.
Life Is Not Back To Normal
Plenty of people’s lives have already returned to normal (potentially even for a couple of months). However, even though the pandemic is on the mend, the overall economy is still not back to normal.
Stock & Bond Correlations
Lately, stocks and bonds have been correlated. If you are worried bonds won’t save you from volatility, then change up your allocation.
Very Easy Financial Conditions
Now that the pandemic is within weeks of ending in the US and many of the innovation stocks have corrected sharply, it seems like the economy and markets are more normal than they had been in the prior 15 months.
Investing Feels The Easiest At Exactly The Wrong Time
About half of the country won’t have pandemic unemployment benefits in place by the middle of the summer. The good news is this means there won’t be a major impact to the labor market all at once in September.
Above Trend Inflation Is The Consensus
The April industrial production report was just like the retail sales report.
This Typically Occurs At The End Of Expansions
Retail sales were weak in April compared to the amazing March.
How Long Will Rising Inflation Be Ignored?
Inflation is spiking. PPI hit a record high in April. Consumers became less optimistic following the spike in inflation in May.
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