Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 25
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Market Psychology & Fundamentals Mismatched
Inspire of the loud, very loud shouting of a pending economic collapse by CNBC anchors and well-known billionaire investors (actually they are Momentum Traders), the economic data indicates all will be surprised to the upside.
Refinery Inputs Near Seasonal Low… Oil Inventories Grow… For Now
A lot of forecasts for recession are coupled to the fall in ‘oil prices’ which some investors tie to a slowing economy with the same simple interpretation of "Dr. Copper".
Mortgage Credit About To Surge?
Mortgage credit or lack thereof has been a drag on this economy. Housing starts are still nowhere near where they need to be and Dodd/Frank is the culprit.
The VIX And Investment Timing
Today, economic activity is in a strong uptrend and market psychology believes a recession is imminent. A strong investment opportunity for higher prices is present.
Household Debt At Historic Low Levels
Financially, the US is in very good shape. It is China and other foreign markets which carry high debt.
Government Spending Boosting GDP
Real GDP rises with increase in Govt Exp&Inv, but Real Private GDP not perceptibly changed.
Kansas City Southern And Market Psychology
KSU provides an excellent example of the investment process.n a historical basis KSU is well below the typical pricing it has received with current business trends. History suggests KSU could rise to $300shr or higher.
"Glut" Or "Seasonal Build" ?
Suddenly the headlines seem to have turned to ‘oil over-supply’ when just 4wks ago they implied ‘short-supply’ vs demand.
T-Bill/10yr Spread Is A Lesson In Behavioral Finance
There is a lot of talk of ‘market tops’ and pending ‘collapses’. This talk has been with us since this investment cycle began in Spring 2009. It is market psychology based on recent market prices.
Oil Prices And Consumption
Economics suggests continued oil consumption and higher prices. Geopolitical events, i.e. Iran sanctions, could spike prices short term, but too hard to call.
Oil Update - Monday, Sept. 17
We are up 86% in this trade and I think there is another jump higher in oil prices coming.
JOLTS Revised Higher
The economic data continues to surge while the consensus calls for correction.
S&P Intrinsic Value And Update
Net/net, conditions remain as positive as they have been since 2009 even though valuations are no longer steeply discounted.
Fundamentals Change Before They Become Headlines
Oil exports began with refined products in 2006 and have continued to rise at ~13% annual pace since. We actually became a net exporter of Refined Products Sept 2011.
Next Wave Of Housing Demand...Renters
The Community Reinvestment Act 1995 pushed Multi-Family below 20% in 2005 as the Sub-Prime Crisis built to its peak in 2006.
Trade, Deregulation, Taxes & Sanctions
Along with USD strength, we have also seen a fall in the US 10yr Treasury rate as global capital seeks a safe haven away from sanctioned countries.
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