Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Truck Tonnage Remains In Uptrend
Trucking Tonnage Index, a relatively volatile economic indicator, remains in a rising trend.
Nearly 1/2 Of SPR Gone
Our ability to weather a large supply disruption event dwindles daily.
Real Retail Sales Steady, Income Rises
Economic data indicate economic expansion is continuing and likely to do so for several years. This is positive for equity prices even with persistent inflation and rising interest rates.
Does The Fed Actually Set Rates?
It has long been assumed and taught that the Federal Reserve sets interest rates. It is said the Fed has a two-fold mandate to 1) maximize employment while 2) minimizing inflation.
More Upside Surprises And Upward Revisions
The Manufacturers’ New Orders for Durable Goods reported this morning adds to the series of positive economic surprises including recent months’ reports revise higher.
Economic Signs Continue To Be Positive
Manufacturer’s New Orders and Real Personal Income both reported higher numbers today.
More Good News… Truck Tonnage Rises
The June report rose 2.1% vs May with a downward revision with the net effect being a rise above the trend line.
Retails Sales Higher, Past Reports Revised Higher
The recession forecasts are melting away with little fanfare.
Pessimism And Fundamentals Continue Their Mismatch
With the SP500 over $4,400 and many now speaking of a “new Bull Market” all that has occurred is a relief of the extreme pessimism of recent months.
New Orders & Retail Sales Motor Vehicle & Parts Vs Lt Weight Vehicle SAAR And The Manheim Index All Positive
It is increasingly looking like we will not see the severe recession many were predicting.
Why Are We Continuing To Raid The SPR?
We are now at 45% depleted and we don’t need to be using it.
Inflation Steady…. Recession Risk Continues To Fall
The consensus opinion is inflation will fall to the 3% range or lower within 18 months or so. The data does not support this thesis.
Presto! Now It’s A Bull Market
Just like that, it is suddenly a “Bull Market”.
The Raid On The SRP Continues
This is an inexplicable policy.  While the administration hampers drilling and transportation of oil and gas at every turn, it is also draining the SPR as no other administration has ever done.
10-Year To Continue Rising?
As inflation persists with the current path of government policy, 10yr Treasury rates could rise to the 7%-8% range the next 2yrs-3yrs.
The Great Myth: Oil Vs Inflation
One of the great myths of finance, embedded over many decades of thinking, has been that the cost of oil, WTI, is a major factor for inflation.
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