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Sober Look is a no-hype financial blog that typically relies on data analysis and primary sources. Posts are intended to be succinct, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be ...more

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The Daily Shot And Data - October 26, 2016
US inflation expectations continue to grind higher, increasing the certainty of a rate hike this year. Shortly, several Fed officials will begin preparing the markets for this policy decision.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 25, 2016
S manufacturing is finally improving. However, job declines in the sector as well falling exports remain a major concern.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 20, 2016
US total oil production (that includes Alaska) has been stable since June. As prices rise, it's only a matter of time before US production ramps up again - capping further appreciation.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 19, 2016
Several Fed officials have indicated that they want to let inflation run a bit hotter before removing stimulus. It means that the Fed's rate hike trajectory slope may get downgraded again. The December hike, however, is still very much on the table.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 18, 2016
US economic data remains mixed. Industrial production and capacity utilization have been soft as the boost from utilities (due to hot summer) wanes.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 17, 2016
The US dollar continues to grind higher as the market senses the impending rate hike before the year-end.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 13, 2016
According to the FOMC minutes the hawkish Committee members continue pressing for a rate hike. The decision to hold rates unchanged in September was apparently a "close call."
The Daily Shot And Data - October 12, 2016
With a rate hike later this year hanging over the markets, the dollar continues to rise. If this trend continues, it will once again tighten financial conditions in the US and return volatility to vulnerable emerging markets.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 11, 2016
Speculative accounts continue to load up on net long yen positions. This trend is a bit surprising given the high likelihood of a rate hike in the US this year (which should support the dollar).
The Daily Shot And Data - October 6, 2016
The ADP private jobs report came in yesterday, below consensus, with the payrolls momentum softening. Manufacturing remains a drag on US job creation.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 5, 2016
The British pound slumped to a 31-year low on renewed worries about Brexit. The reality is setting in that the so-called "hard Brexit" is quite possible. The weaker pound is in effect compensating for the potential EU tariffs.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 4, 2016
Market-based inflation expectations continue to climb with oil. This is another indicator that the FOMC hawks are likely to bring up. The futures-implied probability of a rate hike by the end of 2016 is now over 60%.
The Daily Shot And Data - October 3, 2016
With a rise in inflation expectations, US market-implied real rates have moved lower. The 10yr TIPS yield is back below zero, which suggests that US monetary conditions remain highly accommodative.
The Daily Shot And Data - September 30, 2016
The Deutsche Bank boogeyman is back. The market was shaken by the news (somewhat reminiscent of Bear Stearns in early 2008) that several large clients started reducing credit exposure to the bank.
The Daily Shot And Data - September 29, 2016
To most analysts' surprise, OPEC supposedly agreed to implement production cuts - for the first time in years. Perhaps the Saudis struck a conciliatory tone due to escalating domestic challenges
The Daily Shot And Data - September 28, 2016
We see more "green shoots" in Brazil where consumer confidence, though extremely weak, is gradually recovering. There are more signs that Brazil's inflationary pressures are easing, which should result in rate cuts by the nation's central bank.
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