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Paul Hodges

Trusted Advisor
Contributor's Links: International eChem The pH Report
Paul Hodges is a trusted advisor to many of the world's leading investors and companies. He publishes The pH Report, which focuses on the impact of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus on world markets. Paul serves as a Global ...more
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33 to 48 of 184 Posts
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China’s Lockdown Makes Global Debt Crisis Now Almost Certain
Sunday, February 23, 2020 10:13 AM EDT
It would be nice to believe that the epidemic will have no impact on China’s economy. But common sense tells us this can’t be true. What would happen to our own country’s economy, if our capital and a major manufacturing base shutdown for a month?
In this article: AAPL, CYB
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Financial Markets Head For (Another) Train Crash As Coronavirus Starts To Impact
Sunday, February 16, 2020 6:59 AM EDT
Wall Street is in denial over the likely impact of the 'China deflation shock' about to hit financial markets, as demand disappears in the world's second largest economy.
In this article: DIA
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Coronavirus Disruptions Make Global Recession Almost Certain
Sunday, February 9, 2020 8:57 AM EDT
Investors have been 'buying the coronavirus dip', assuming that stimulus is the solution for every problem Their confidence is about to be tested as the scale of the disruption becomes clear.
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Your A To Z Guide To The Brexit Trade Negotiations
Sunday, February 2, 2020 9:50 AM EDT
The UK has now left the EU, and the government is refusing to extend the transition beyond December. Yet it has still not set out its detailed objectives for future trade. So the EU27 now control the timetable for the negotiations, and their scope.
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China’s Plastic Ban And Recycling Launch Marks End Of ‘Business As Usual’ For Plastics Industry
Sunday, January 26, 2020 11:43 AM EDT
China represents one third of the global polyethylene market. Its slowdown, the trade war tariffs, and the likely coronavirus impact, were already bad news for demand. Now, its plastic bag ban and recycling plans will transform the global market.
In this article: LYB, DOW
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Contingency Planning Is Essential In 2020 As "synchronised Slowdown" Continues
Sunday, January 12, 2020 2:43 PM EDT
Today's synchronised slowdown continues to challenge consensus optimism and stock market euphoria. Contingency planning around recession risks needs to be top of the agenda for companies and investors
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Will Stock Markets See A Minsky Moment In 2020?
Sunday, January 5, 2020 10:26 AM EDT
President Trump and the Federal Reserve are both focused on supporting the stock market. So 2020 looks set for further records - unless investors share Minsky's view that long periods of stability eventually lead to major instability?
In this article: AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META, NFLX
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Chart Of The Decade – The Fed’s Support For The S&P 500 Will End With A Debt Crisis
Sunday, December 22, 2019 11:18 AM EDT
As Paul Volcker's death reminds us, central bankers used to focus on ensuring financial market excess didn't damage the real economy. By ignoring this principle, his successors have instead created asset bubbles that will be very painful to unwind
In this article: SPX
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Boris Johnson Will Have To Disappoint Someone In 2020 As The UK Finally Leaves The EU
Sunday, December 15, 2019 12:05 PM EDT
The Brexit dream of "having one's cake and eating it" is facing an abrupt wake-up call. After January, the UK will have to choose between becoming an EU rule-taker - or spend the next few years with No Deal, negotiating new trade deals from scratch
In this article: FXE, FXB
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Polyethylene’s Crisis Will Create Winners And Losers
Sunday, December 8, 2019 12:26 PM EDT
The Polyethylene market is moving from boom to bust. Non-integrated producers are particularly at risk as margins fall - and go negative in some markets. Investors need to check their portfolios to avoid holding potential loser companies..
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Global Economy Hits Stall Speed While S&P 500 Sets New Records
Sunday, December 1, 2019 11:17 AM EDT
A wake-up call is around the corner for the Fed's simplistic belief that higher stock markets support the economy, as the world's best leading indicator suggests recession is on the way.
In this article: SPX
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Portugal Shows The Way To Climate Neutrality By 2050
Sunday, November 24, 2019 12:13 PM EDT
Sustainability and climate change are the great challenges and opportunities of the next 20 years. Portugal is showing the way with its new strategy to reach climate neutrality by 2050. Investors need to ensure their portfolios are going to benefit.
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Oil Markets Hold Their ‘Flag Shape’ As Recession Risks Mount
Sunday, November 17, 2019 11:22 AM EDT
Hedge funds are looking forward to easy pickings in oil markets as prices bounce off the bottom of their flag shape. And credulous investors in stock markets are taking this as a sign of economic recovery but in reality, recession is near.
In this article: USO
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The Next Billion Phone Users Will Be Buying $10 Smart Feature Phones
Sunday, November 10, 2019 12:15 PM EDT
Phone markets are seeing their own paradigm shift, as smart feature phones replace smartphones. But investors are still betting on 'business as usual' for Apple's stock
In this article: AAPL
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UK Election Offers Voters No Middle Ground In December
Sunday, November 3, 2019 9:46 AM EDT
Investors are blind-sided by the idea that voters only focus on economic issues. In reality, economics only triumphs when things are going well. Next month's UK election will be a wake-up call, with its stark choice between Brexit and socialism.
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Budgeting For Paradigm Shifts And A Debt Crisis
Sunday, October 27, 2019 5:01 PM EDT
Companies have a choice as they finalise next year's budget. Do they ignore what's happening in the wider world and hope for 'business as usual'? Or do they focus on surviving the coming debt crisis and preparing for the new opportunities ahead?
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33 to 48 of 184 Posts
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