Marc Chandler | TalkMarkets | Page 134
Political Economist
Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the humanities. ...more

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The Threat Of The Mini-BoT
Italy's deficit this year was projected to be near 1.8% of GDP. If the cost of the initiatives were paid in full this year, it would likely bring the deficit toward 3% of GDP.
Great Graphic: Euro-Swiss Shows Elevated Systemic Risk
The Swiss National Bank's decision in January 2015 to remove the cap on the Swiss franc (floor on the euro) that it has set at CHF1.20 is seared into the memory of a generation of foreign exchange participants.
Market Response To De-escalation Of Sino-American Trade Tensions: Meh
Asian stock markets were mixed, as exemplified by the rise of the Nikkei (~0.3%) and the decline in the Topix (~-0.1%).
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview May 21
With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.
Dollar Power
There are several high-level trends in the capital markets. The euro and yen's decline has coincided with sustained rallies in European and Japanese equity benchmarks. Emerging market equities and currencies have been trending lower.
Dollar Surge Continues
The US dollar is experiencing a powerful surge. It is a function of rising US rates and gradually growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may hike rates three more times this year, rather than the two that the median Fed forecast anticipated.
Emerging Markets: What Changed - Friday, May 18
Bank Indonesia started a tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike to 4.5%. This was the first rate hike since November 2014.
Markets Are Uninspired Ahead Of The Weekend
The US dollar is mostly firmer. US yields have stabilized. Asian equities were mostly higher, while European bourses are struggling. Oil prices are steady.
Afta NAFTA
The US decision to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, it was inevitable that the North American Free Trade Agreement would have to be re-opened.
US Rates Edge Higher, While Dollar Turns Mixed
After finally convincingly breaking above 3.0%, the US 10-year Treasury yield is continuing to probe higher. It is through 3.10% level now.
What Happened To LIBOR-OIS?
One of the stories that have slipped out of the news is OIS-LIBOR spread. The widening of the spread, which is often associated with financial stress, had widened starting late last year.
US Yields Soften After Yesterday's Surge
The US 10-year yield rose seven basis points yesterday to nearly 3.10%. It is consolidating near 3.06% now. Many see the yield rising toward 3.20%, which would match the mid-2011 high.
Italy Defies Gravity And Risk To Fiscal Rectitude
Italian asset markets continue to fare better than many expected.
Firm US Rates Underpin Greenback
US 10-year rates are again probing the air above 3%, and this is encouraging a push back toward JPY110, with the euro slipping toward $1.19.
Widening Inflation Differential Between US-EMU
The euro is beginning this week with a four-week slide in tow. It has depreciated in eight of the past ten weeks.
US Dollar Slips In Quiet Turnover
The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies to start the new week.
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