Marc Chandler Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Political Economist

Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks.

Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the ... more

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Four Key Numbers In The Week Ahead
The economic schedule is fairly light, and market psychology appears fragile after the dramatic activity in equities and what appears to be shifting macro-relationships. We identify four "numbers" that can illuminate the week ahead.
New Window Of Opportunity For Dollar Correction
Rising US yields and equities have traditionally been yen negative. With recent gains taking the yen to its best level against the dollar since late 2016 and up 6% to lead major currencies this year, the old relationships appear to have broken down.
Emerging Markets: What Changed - Friday, February 16
In the EM equity space, as measured by MSCI, South Africa (+7.8%), China (+7.2%), and Russia (+6.8%) have outperformed this week, while Egypt (-1.9%), UAE (-1.2%), and India (flat) have underperformed.
Worst Week For The Dollar Since 2015-2016, While Stocks Continue To Recover
Nearly all the major currencies have risen at least two percent against the US dollar this week. The Canadian dollar is an exception.It has risen one percent this week ahead of today's local session
Stocks Jump, Bonds Dump, And The Dollar Slumps
The significant development this week has been the recovery of equities after last week's neck-breaking drop, while yields have continued to rise.
Trade Reciprocity--Negotiating Stance
This week take of "reciprocal tax" has been resurrected. The idea here is that the US should match other countries’ tariff on US goods.
Investors Remain Uneasy Even As Equities Stabilize
There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Bears Very Short US 10-Year Ahead Of CPI
The US reports January CPI figures tomorrow. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings that pushed yields higher and unhinged the stock market.
Stocks And Bonds
It is a more complicated look at the relationship between the US stocks and bonds. In particular, we are looking at the S&P 500 and the 10-year US generic yield.
Tuesday's Two Developments
There are two important developments today. First, the recovery in the global equity markets is being challenged. Second, the yen has strengthened across the board and is now at its best levels against the dollar since last September's low.
US Rates: Real Or Expectations?
The jump in US interest rates triggered equity sales and a spike in volatility, which in turn spurred the unwinding of low vol bets that had been paying off handsomely.
Equity Markets Find Firmer Footing, Dollar Softens
The most important development today has been the stability in the equity markets after last week's meltdown.
Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead - Feb. 12
EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, as risk assets recovered a bit from broad-based selling pressures. Best EM performers on the week were ZAR, PHP, and CNY while the worst were COP, RUB, and ARS.
The Week Ahead: Recovering From Too Much Of A Good Thing?
The low volatility that has been a characteristic of the capital markets for the past few years spurred financial innovation to profit from it.
Can The Dollar Remain Firm If The Equity Bloodletting Is Over?
The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week except the Japanese yen. The yen and dollar's strength is consistent with our understanding that both currencies were used to fund the purchases of other assets, including equities.
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed - Friday, February 9
In the EM equity space, as measured by MSCI, Egypt (-1.0%), Indonesia (-1.5%), and UAE (-1.7%) have outperformed this week, while China (-10.0%), Hong Kong (-7.5%), and Taiwan (-7.4%) have underperformed.
1 to 16 of 2335 Posts
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