Marc Chandler Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Political Economist

Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks.

Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the ... more

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Week Ahead: Number One Rule Of The Game Is Stay In The Game
The week ahead is short on economic data and long on anticipation. The dollar's uptrend of the first part of the month yielded to corrective forces last week, though the greenback finished the week on a firm note.
Speculators Extend Long Dollar-Bloc Positions
It was another CFTC reporting week that saw little adjustment to the speculative positioning in the euro, yen, and sterling futures. In fact, the average change in the gross speculative positions in these three major currencies was 2.7k contracts.
What Now For The Dollar?
During the ten-day rally, the Dollar Index retraced a little more than 50% of January's decline, and the subsequent retreat saw it give back a little more than half of those gains.
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed - Friday, Feb. 17
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Brazil, Hungary, and Qatar have outperformed this week, while Peru, Egypt, and Colombia have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.9% this week while MSCI DM rose 0.9%.
Greenback Stabilizes Ahead Of The Weekend
The US dollar is finishing the week on a steady to firmer note against the major currencies but the Japanese yen. The softer yields and weaker equity markets often are associated with a stronger yen.
The Consensus Narrative Does Not Appreciate The Resilience Of The System
The high level of anxiety among investors is masked by the rise of equities. As political issues dominate many discussions, the pessimism is palpable. It is fully understandable. The economic crisis lingers for many.
Corrective Forces Emerge, Tempering The Dollar's Rally
The Dollar Index had moved higher for ten consecutive sessions before reversing yesterday's gains to close lower. Yesterday and today's losses have seen the Dollar Index retrace 38.2% of the advance since February 2.
Yellen Helps The Dollar Extend Streak
The Dollar Index's ten-day rally was at risk yesterday, but Yellen's reiteration of the commitment to continue to lift rates gradually helped extend the streak to eleven sessions.
Lies, Damn Lies, And Taxes
President Trump hinted at the end of last week that the Administration's tax proposals would be aired in the next two or three weeks. This seems to be a signal of its inclusion in his address to both houses of Congress on February 28.
Markets Showing Little Love On Valentine's
Corrective pressures are gripping the major capital markets today. The Dollar Index's nine-day advancing streak is being threatened by the position adjustment ahead of Yellen's testimony later today.
What Is Good For The Dollar Is Bad For Gold
Gold and the Dollar Index tend to move in opposite directions.
Quiet Start Of Busy Week
With inflation and growth reports due out this week and Federal Reserve Chair Yellen's testimony before Congress, it promises to be a busy week for investors.
Emerging Market Preview Of The Week Ahead - Feb. 13
EM FX ended last week on a firm note. Falling US rates allowed many foreign currencies to gain some traction. This week, a heavy US data slate could test market convictions on the Fed, with January PPI, CPI, IP, and retail sales all being reported.
Yellen’s Path Cleared By Trump’s Moderation
The prospect of a border adjustment (tax imports and remove taxes on exports) has prompted many classically trained economists to claim that the dollar will automatically appreciate offsetting the import tax.
Speculators In Futures Are Net Long All The Dollar Bloc Currencies - First Time In Five Months
With a small adjustment to gross positions, speculators turned net long New Zealand dollars for the first time in three months. Now speculators in the futures market are net long the dollar-bloc currencies.
The Dollar's Underlying Trend Resumes
For the last several weeks, we have been looking for the dollar correction that began around the Fed's rate hike in the middle of December to be completed and for the uptrend to resume.
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