Marc Chandler Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Political Economist

Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks.

Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the ... more

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Bond Yields, Inflation, And More
It all seems so reasonable. US Treasury yields have fallen around 50 bp since the March rate hike. Market-based measures of inflation, like the 10-year breakeven and the five-year/five years forward, have fallen around 35 bp over the same period.
Greenback Goes Nowhere Quickly, While Yen Remains Bid
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies.Bond yields are mostly one-two basis points lower, and equity markets are mixed but with a downside bias.
Fed, ECB, And BOJ Balance Sheets
The Fed will, as Yellen said, begin shrinking its balance sheet "relatively soon." The ECB appears set to begin a tapering operation that will continue to expand its balance sheet at a slower pace.
Great Graphic: Selected GDP Performance Since 2008 And Policy
Many might suspect Japan has been the worst of the bunch, but in truth, it is the eurozone that has been the laggard. However, that is about to change. Real GDP growth in the eurozone is about to overtake Japan.
Heavy Oil Weighs On Yields And Lifts Yen
The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies. The drop in oil prices (3.3% this week) is seen as one of the factors that may be underpinning the appetite for fixed income, and this, in turn, is lifting the yen.
Officials Fill Vacuum Of Data To Drive FX Market
The Bank of England is most likely not going to raise rates anytime soon. The market responded immediately and began unwinding the tightening bets.
Dollar Mixed While Equities Recover To Start Eventful Week
The dollar firmed in the Asia session but ran out of steam in late-turnover near JPY111.20. US 10-year Treasury yields are offering little new support for the dollar against the yen.
Emerging Markets In The Week Ahead - June 19
EM FX was mixed Friday to cap off a mostly lower week. Obviously, we're seeing a bit of a washout in EM after a hawkish FOMC. The market was overly complacent and very long EM into the FOMC meeting. The big question is how deep this selloff gets.
Events Not Data Key In Week Ahead
It is a light week for economic data from the G7, and for the reports that are on tap are unlikely to change the consensus scenario in the aftermath of major central bank meetings in the first half of the month.
Specs Cut Euro, Yen And Aussie Exposure And Do Little Else
The low volatility in the foreign exchange market may be discouraging speculators in a self-reinforcing cycle. Nearly half the gross positions we track had adjustment of less than 4k contracts.
Greenback Still Trying To Turn
The Federal Reserve will likely raise rates again and begin to shrink its balance sheet, while the ECB and BOJ continue to expand their balance sheets and maintain not just low, but negative rates.
Dollar Slips In Consolidation, But Extends Recovery Against The Yen
As the market heads into the weekend, the US dollar is trading softer as it consolidates. It is within yesterday's ranges against the major currencies but the Japanese yen.
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed - Friday, June 16
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Hungary (+1.3%), Indonesia (+1.2%), and Mexico (+0.9%) have outperformed this week, while Russia (-4.1%), South Africa (-3.2%), and Egypt (-3.0%) have underperformed.
Dollar Trades Higher In Wake Of The FOMC
The US dollar gains scored yesterday in response to what appeared to be a more hawkish FOMC than expected have been extended today. The euro and the Swiss franc have recorded new lows for the month.
In The Run-Up To The FOMC
The market has practically fully discounted a 25 bp hike in the Fed funds target range today. Investors are more interested in the forward guidance rather the rate move itself.
China Update - Tuesday, June 13
China's Ministry of Finance made two important announcements today. For the first time, China indicated its intentions to reduce the amount of yuan-denominated bonds it offers in Hong Kong.
1 to 16 of 1996 Posts
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