Marc Chandler Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Political Economist

Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks.

Chandler attended North Central College for undergraduate work, where he majored in political science and the ... more

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Tax Prospects Lift Rates And Dollar Ahead Of Weekend
The US Senate approved a budget resolution that is a necessary step toward using a parliamentary maneuver that prevents the Democrats to block tax reform by filibuster. This has helped spur dollar gains against all the major currencies.
Abe's Third Arrow
Japan's Abe's gamble to call snap elections shortly after the stunning defeat in the Tokyo elections appears likely to pay-off.
Kiwi Drop And Sterling Losses Punctuate Subdued FX Market
Disappointing UK retail sales and more trouble for Prime Minister May is taking a toll on sterling. It has traded on both sides of yesterday's range, but chart support near $1.3120 is holding, at least for the moment.
The Euro's Complicated Top
Speculative market positioning is leaning heavily long euros. European politics no longer the tailwind that it was, it is not surprising that the euro appears to be carving out a top.
Central Bank Chiefs And Currencies
The market is fickle. It has jumped from one candidate to another as the most likely Fed Chair.
NAFTA Worries Take Toll, Yellen's Best Guess Supports Greenback
In a relatively quiet week for economic data, except for the UK, we suggested that politics may trump economics.
Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Ahead - Oct. 23
EM FX closed the week on a firm note as softer than expected US CPI data weighed on the dollar. We continue to believe investors are underestimating the Fed’s tightening potential. Idiosyncratic political risk remains high for MXN, TRY, and ZAR.
The Markets And The Long Shadow Of Politics
With the arguable exception of the UK, which publishes its latest CPI, retail sales, and employment reports, politics dominate the agenda next week and in the run-up to the ECB meeting on October 26.
Will The Bullish Outlook For Treasuries Weigh On The Dollar?
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies last week. Ahead of the December FOMC meeting, markets had priced in a high degree of confidence of a hike and the 10-year yield reached the top end of its six-month trading range near 2.40%.
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed - Friday, October 13
The US suspended visa services for travelers from Turkey. This came after an employee at the US Consulate in Istanbul was arrested. Turkey responded with a similar move on visas for US travelers.
Dollar Dropped Like Hot Potato After Core CPI Disappointed
The dollar was bid before the US economic data. The market responded quickly upon seeing the disappointing 0.1% rise in core CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.1% increase kept the year-over-year rate at 1.7% for the fourth consecutive month.
Sterling Extends Yesterday's Recovery; US Data Awaited
The EU's leading negotiator whipsawed sterling yesterday. The net effect was to ease fears that the UK would leave the EU without the agreement Initial concerns that the negotiations had stalled sent sterling to nearly $1.3120.
Political Focus Shifting In Europe
There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump's election was not going to sweep through Europe.
Discipline Argues Against Consensus Narrative
Following the release of the FOMC minutes from last month's meeting, the consensus narrative that has emerged says that it was dovish because there is a growing worry the reason inflation fell is not simply due to transitory factors.
China Ends Swap Lines With South Korea: A Dog That Doesn't Bark
China has declined to renew the $56 billion currency swap line with South Korea. The swap line has been in place for eight years. Initially, it was launched at $26 billion in 2009 and expanded in 2011. It has been extended twice since then.
Markets Looking For A New Focus
The economic highlight from the US today will be the FOMC minutes from the September 20 meeting, at which it provided new economic forecasts and decided to begin its balance sheet operations.
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