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Mauldin Economics, Millennium Wave Investments
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Each week, well over a million readers turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. And for good reason. John is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one ...more

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Are Banks Signaling A Recession?
Up until February, you would have done well to be overweight banks. “Banks do well in a rising interest rate environment” was the simple thesis. And that’s true if the banks have competent risk management.
Recession Odds Rising
Recently I saw someone share a clip from their weather app. It said, “Rain expected at 3 pm,” right above a little graphic showing a 30% chance of rain at 3 pm. What’s wrong with that picture?
Another Unstable Finger
Keep dropping grains of sand and you will trigger an avalanche. But before the collapse, the sand grains accumulate. They form “fingers of instability”— small weaknesses where a failure may form. These seem to be piling up in financial markets.
How It Started & How It's Going
We are still on the road to the Great Reset. We can better understand this by recalling the 2008 crisis, the policy responses to it, and decisions made through the 2010's. Let's look at that in-between history and how it brought us to this point.
Deficits Forever
Debt isn’t forever but can definitely seem like it. A clue you have too much debt. Wisely used though, debt helps build income-generating assets that pay for themselves. The payments are manageable because you’re also getting something else of value.
Adjustments Matter
Assumptions are necessary, but we should understand what they are and why we’re making them. Similarly, we need to understand the adjustments often made to raw data before we see it. But you need to understand them if you rely on adjusted data.
Assumptions Have Consequences
Assumptions can be wise or unwise. They can be unduly optimistic or excessively pessimistic. Slightly different assumptions can produce giant changes in predicted outcomes. Assumptions are necessary but we shouldn’t make them lightly.
A Muddle-Through Market, For Now
I think the Fed will raise rates another 1‒2 times by 25 bps, taking the fed funds rate to my original target last year of 5%+. These hikes are beginning to suppress demand. This will continue because they need to stomp inflation.
Growth Pains, According To GARP
The management style called “growth at a reasonable price,” or GARP, is used for stock investing; but we can apply a similar idea to economic growth.
Slow Change Speeds Up
The World Economic Forum met in Davos this week, discussing ways to solve our collective problems and create opportunities. The most important conversations were off the record and many of the public speeches were simply performance art.
The Punchbowl Is Gone
The Federal Open Market Committee’s 12 voting members differ on where they think interest rates should go this year.
Year Of The Pause
Think of this as a kind of a watch list. I want you to go away knowing where to look … even if we don’t yet know what you’ll see.
Higher For Longer
This will be my last letter of 2022. I want to use this letter as a set-up for my annual forecast issue the first week of January. Get ready to travel the world but let’s start at home with the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
Recession Scale
Economic news—and market reactions to it—increasingly resemble a tennis game. Spectators follow the ball back and forth, thinking something will happen but usually it doesn’t.
The Economy Is A-Changin’
Change is constant, in the economy and everything else. We talk about it often. Yet when we talk about the economy changing, we usually mean — from expansion to recession, deflationary to inflationary, emerging to developing, etc.
An Interview With Keith Fitz-Gerald
Keith Fitz-Gerald and I did a 45-minute "interview" via Zoom. I was surprised how many topics Keith and I aligned on perfectly, though our few disagreements about what comes next made for a great debate.
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