Jeffrey P. Snider | TalkMarkets | Page 61
Chief Investment Strategist
Contributor's Links: Eurodollar University
Jeff is an Investment Strategist and currently runs Eurodollar University. Formerly the Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheaded the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambras client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital ...more

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Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues
Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues.
It All Comes Down To The Service Sector
For many, the entire issue of possible recession revolves around the service sector. As far as manufacturing goes, no one will argue otherwise; it’s already in trouble.
Just Who Was The Intended Audience For The Rate Cut?
Federal Reserve policymakers appear to have grown more confident in their more optimistic assessment of the domestic situation.
Copper Confirmed
Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets.
The ISM Conundrum
Bond yields have tumbled this morning, bringing the 10-year US Treasury rate within sight of its record low level. The catalyst appears to have been the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI.
Gold: Big Difference Which Kind Of Hedge It Truly Is
Martin Feldstein was right. Gold isn’t an inflation hedge. It is both a signal of, as well as protection against, Economists/central bankers who are particularly prone to making huge errors.
GDP Profits Hold The Answers To All Questions
Revisions to second quarter GDP were exceedingly small. The BEA reduced the estimate by a little less than $800 million out of nearly $20 trillion (seasonally-adjusted annual rate).
The Corroboration And Costs Of Fear Gold
Gold is the ultimate hedge, but it is far from perfect.
China Throws More ‘Stimulus’ At The Wall
Right now, all we can do is map out and appreciate the balance of risks – we don’t have a crystal ball from which we can foretell exactly the global future. The longer this goes on, however, the more those risks seem to multiply and deepen.
Definitely A Downturn, But What’s Its Rate Of Change?
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero.
Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest Of The World?
Germany may already be there, and Japan may actually not be far enough behind. The global scales are tipping in the wrong direction. That’s exactly what’s behind falling yields.
Retail Sales’ Amazon Pick-Up
What happens from here on is a matter of how the rest of the economy continues to react to “overseas turmoil” and the growing recession in the goods economy.
Not Bond Bull, The Bull Of Bonds
The only part that’s really true in the mainstream view, is that there really is a lot of bull when it comes to bonds. And that’s before we even get to term premiums.
Gifts Of Wyoming, Complicating A Simple Story About Bears
Powell isn’t a dove, he’s bear food, and to the bears he tastes more and more like chicken.
Way Beyond The ‘12%’
It’s becoming fashionable again to dismiss manufacturing. In 2015, we heard repeatedly how it represented only 12% of overall economic output.
Did The BLS Just Find The Landmine? One-Fifth Of Previously Estimated Payroll Gains May Not Have Existed
The entire basis for what the Fed is now calling a “mid-cycle” adjustment rests upon a specific view of the labor market.
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